[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272313
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Feb 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2220 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Strong to near gale-force NE to E winds
continue this evening within about 90 nm of the northern coast of
Colombia. Seas in this area are presently ranging from 10 to 16
ft. Winds will continue to pulse to gale-force for the next few
nights, as the pressure gradient remains enhanced between the
Colombian low and high pressure over the western Atlantic. The
strongest winds, up to 40 kt, are expected at night, when seas
are forecast to reach 15- 18 ft. Please read the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits coastal Sierra Leone near 09N13W to
06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 03N30W to 00N45W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02.5N-
06.5N between 05W-26W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 02N-05N between 26W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds continue over the Gulf
of Mexico with no significant precipitation seen across the
basin. Seas are 3-5 ft over the western and southern Gulf and up
to 6 ft in the Florida Straits. Dense marine fog restricting
visibilities earlier today has burned off across all but the Texas
coastal waters where it remains patchy. Marine fog in these
nearshore Gulf waters will likely continue through early next
week,

Moderate to occasionally fresh southeasterly winds will continue
across the Gulf into early next week. A weak cold front will
reach the northern Gulf on Tue, then stall and weaken to a
trough on Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section above for information about an
ongoing Gale Warning near the northern coast of Colombia.

Mostly fair weather conditions prevail across the basin under
the influence of a middle to upper-level anticyclone covering
the central and western Caribbean. ASCAT data from 1418 UTC
revealed fresh to strong trade winds in the central and eastern
parts of the basin, including the Windward Passage. Widely scattered,
fast-moving showers are embedded in the trade wind flow, moving
across central portions of the basin between 12N and 16N, and were
approaching the Yucatan coastal waters. Seas are likely 7-12 ft
across the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh ESE trades
are over the western Caribbean, with seas ranging from 3-6 ft

High pressure north of the region in combination with low
pressure over northern Colombia will continue to support strong
trade winds across central Caribbean through Wed, with winds
reaching gale force each night near the coast of Colombia. Fresh
to strong northeast winds will continue across the remainder of
the Caribbean and Atlantic Passages through Mon. Large seas will
remain over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Windward
Islands through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends into the area near 32N43W and continues SW
to 27N50W where the boundary transitions to a shearline. Winds
north of the front and shearline are N to NE at 15-25 kt.
Scatterometer data from this morning also revealed locally strong
NE winds located north of Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands.
East of the front, surface ridging prevails with gentle to
moderate winds occurring north of 24N, becoming fresh south of 24N
over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Locally strong winds are over
the waters from the Canary Islands to the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas
of 4-6 ft prevail across the waters between the Bahamas and
Bermuda, with 7-10 ft seas across the waters north of Puerto Rico
to 25N. Over the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean, seas are
mostly in the 8-10 ft range.

High pressure will remain over the area into early next week.
Fresh to strong easterly winds are expected across the waters
south of 22N through Mon night. A cold front will move over the
far northwest waters Mon afternoon, reach from near 31N69W to
28N73W, become stationary to south-central Florida on Tue, then
weaken through Wed night. The front will be followed by fresh to
strong north to northeast winds and building seas.

$$
Stripling
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net