[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271801
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Feb 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Strong to near gale-force NE to E winds
and sea heights ranging from 10 to 16 ft are present within
about 90 nm of the northern coast of Colombia. Winds will
continue to pulse to gale-force for the next few days, as the
pressure gradient remains enhanced between the Colombian low and
high pressure over the western Atlantic. The strongest winds, up
to 40 kt, are expected at night. Seas are forecast to reach 15-
18 ft during the periods of strongest winds. Please read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center
at the website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 03N30W to
01N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm S
of the monsoon trough axis between 09W-16W. Similar convection
is noted from 02N-05N between 20W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds continue over the Gulf
of Mexico with no significant precipitation seen across the
basin. Seas are 3-5 ft over the western and southern Gulf and up
to 6 ft in the Florida Straits. Dense marine fog continues to
impact much of the Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida
Panhandle, with some areas seeing breaks in the fog for a few
hours during the afternoon. Marine fog in these nearshore Gulf
waters will likely continue through early next week,

Moderate to occasionally fresh southeasterly winds will continue
across the Gulf into early next week. A weak cold front will
reach the northern Gulf on Tue, then stall and weaken to a
trough on Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section above for information about an
ongoing Gale Warning near the northern coast of Colombia.

Mostly fair weather conditions prevail across the basin under
the influence of a middle to upper-level anticyclone covering
the central and western Caribbean. ACSAT data from 1418 UTC
revealed fresh to strong trade winds in the central and eastern
parts of the basin, including the Windward Passage. Scattered,
fast-moving showers may be embedded in the trade wind flow,
mainly east of 74W. Scattered showers are also noted over the
coastal waters of Panama and Costa Rica. Seas are likely 6-12 ft
across the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh
trades are over the western Caribbean, with seas ranging from
3-6 ft

High pressure north of the region in combination
with low pressure over northern Colombia will continue to
support strong trade winds across central Caribbean through Wed,
with winds reaching gale force each night near the coast of
Colombia. Fresh to strong northeast winds will continue across
the remainder of the Caribbean and Atlantic Passages through
Mon. Large seas will remain over the tropical Atlantic waters
east of the Windward Islands through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The stationary front from the previous discussion has lifted
north and dissipated. A cold front extends into the from a 1012
mb centered near 37N42W. The front enters the area near 32N45W
and continues W to 30N50W where the boundary transitions to a
dissipating cold front. Winds behind the front are fresh to
strong. Scatterometer data from this morning also revealed
locally strong NE winds located north of Puerto Rico and the
Leeward Islands. East of the front, surface ridging prevails
with gentle to moderate trades occurring north of 24N, becoming
fresh south of 24N over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Locally
strong winds are over the waters from the Canary Islands to the
Cabo Verde Islands. Seas of 3-6 ft prevail across the waters
between the Bahamas and Bermuda, with 7-10 ft seas north of
Puerto Rico. Over the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean, seas
are mostly in the 8-10 ft range.

High pressure will remain over the area into early
next week. Fresh to strong easterly winds are expected across
the waters south of 22N through Mon night. A cold front will
move over the far northwest waters Mon afternoon, reach from
near 31N69W to 28N73W, become stationary to south-central
Florida on Tue, then weaken through Wed night. The front will be
followed by fresh to strong north to northeast winds and
building seas.

$$
Mora
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