[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270546
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Feb 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An active gale-force wind event is happening, right now, in the
coastal waters of Colombia. Expect NE-to-E gale-force winds, and
sea heights ranging from 11 feet to 14 feet, from 10N to 14N
between 74W and 79W, in the coastal waters of Colombia. The
gale-force wind conditions will be lasting for the next 48 hours
or so. Please, read the latest NWS high seas forecast from the
National Hurricane Center, at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W, to
02N27W 02N32W and 01N36W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from the monsoon trough/ITCZ
southward between 05W and 21W, and from 01N to 04N between 27W
and 40W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere, from
10N southward from 60W eastward. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and possible rainshowers are also from 17N southward
between 30W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from Ocala in Florida toward the lower
Texas Gulf coast. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the
entire Gulf of Mexico.

Areas of low clouds and patchy dense fog are in the coastal
plains and coastal waters, from Texas to Florida. A stationary
front is inland in Texas, from 60 nm to 90 nm to the northwest
and west of the Texas Gulf coast.

Moderate to occasionally fresh southeasterly winds will continue
in the Gulf of Mexico into early next week. A weak cold front
will reach the western Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, then stall and
weaken to a trough on Wednesday. Areas of dense fog are likely
to form in the NW and north
central Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model, for 250 mb, shows an anticyclonic circulation
center that is just off the coast of northern Colombia near
11.5N75W. This feature is spreading upper level anticyclonic
wind flow, to nearly everywhere, in the Caribbean Sea. A trough
enters the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea, passing through
12N58W into NE Venezuela. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers
the Caribbean Sea from 66W eastward. Water vapor imagery
confirms the upper level trough. The GFS model for 500 mb, shows
a trough that passes through 13N58W, into the NE and the north
central sections of Venezuela. Anticyclonic wind flow spans the
rest of the Caribbean Sea, with a NW Cuba anticyclonic
circulation center. The GFS model for 700 mb shows cyclonic wind
flow, that is around a trough, that extends from N Colombia to N
Nicaragua.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, in the entire Caribbean Sea.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, span the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated
moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level
wind flow.

A surface trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, beyond
the Colombia/Panama border, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is 150 nm to the SE
of the surface trough, from 04N to 06N between 74W and 77W.
Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 02N to 09N between 74W and
79W, in Colombia. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
possible rainshowers, are from 13N southward from 72W westward.

Expect NE-to-E winds from 20 knots to 30 knots, and sea heights
ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet, elsewhere, from 10N to 18N
between 68W and 81W.

High pressure to the north of the region, in combination with
low pressure in northern Colombia, will continue to support
strong trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea through Tuesday,
with winds reaching gale-force each night near the coast of
Colombia. Fresh to strong northeast winds will continue in the
remainder of the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean
Passages through Monday. Large seas will remain in the tropical
Atlantic Ocean, to the east of
the Windward Islands, through Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N56W to 30N/31N along 66W,
beyond 32N72W. A cold front passes through 38N43W to 32N56W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 240
nm to the SSE of the cold front. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and possible rainshowers are from 26N northward between
52W and 76W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1034 mb high pressure center that
is near 35N24W, to 31N34W 28N50W and 28N73W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 19N
northward from 60W eastward, and elsewhere from Greater Antilles
northward between 60W and 75W.

High pressure will prevail in the area into early next week.
Fresh to strong easterly winds are expected across the waters
that are to the south of 22N through Monday night. A cold front
will move into the far northwest waters on Monday afternoon. The
cold front will reach from near
31N69W to 28N73W, become stationary to south central Florida on
Tuesday, then weaken through Wednesday night. The front will be
followed by fresh to strong north to northeast winds and
building seas.

$$
mt/dm
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