[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262315
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Feb 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2240 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Strong NE to E winds will continue to
pulse to gale-force within about 90 nm of the northern coast of
Colombia for the next several nights and early mornings, as the
pressure gradient remains enhanced between the Colombian low and
high pressure over the western Atlantic. The strongest winds, up
to 40 kt, are expected tonight, Sat night and Sun night. Seas are
forecast to reach 12-17 ft during the periods of strongest winds.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National
Hurricane Center at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border of Sierra
Leone/Guinea near 09N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from
06N20W to 03N25W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 00N-06N between 05W-16W, and from 02S-04.5N between
30W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Moderate SE to S winds continue over the Gulf of Mexico with no
significant precipitation seen across the basin. Seas are 3-5 ft
over the western and southern Gulf, according to recent buoy
observations and a morning altimeter pass. Seas are likely
currently 1-3 ft over the NE Gulf. Dense marine fog was impacting
much of the Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle,
throughout much of the day but appears to have dissipated across
all but the central Louisiana coastal waters. Marine fog in these
nearshore Gulf waters will likely continue through early next
week, with some areas could see breaks in the fog for a few hours
during the afternoons. Moderate to occasionally fresh SE winds
will prevail across the Gulf into early next week. A weak cold
front is expected to move into the northwestern Gulf late Mon and
Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features above for information about an ongoing
Gale Warning near the northern coast of Colombia.

Mostly fair weather conditions prevail across the basin under the
influence of a middle to upper level anticyclone covering the
central and western Caribbean. A few passing showers are possibly
occurring over the eastern Caribbean between 14N and 17N, over
portions of the Leeward and northern Windward Islands, and to the
north of eastern Honduras. Persistent high pressure north of the
area is supporting fresh trades over the eastern Caribbean and
strong trades over the central Caribbean, according to the latest
ASCAT data pass from Friday morning. Seas are likely 5-8 ft in
the eastern Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the NW portion, and 9-13 ft
across south central portions of the basin.

Strong trade winds will continue across the central Caribbean
through Tue night, with winds reaching gale force near the coast
of Colombia. Fresh to strong northeast winds will continue across
the remainder of the Caribbean and Atlantic Passages through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening cold front extends from the central Atlantic near
32N57W to near 28N65W. Moderate showers are seen southeast of it
to the east of 60W. A surface trough extends from 30N59W to
28N67W with isolated showers near it. Otherwise, surface ridging
and gentle winds prevail in the latitude band of 24N-31N between
40W-81W. Fresh to strong trades prevail south of 22N, across the
tropical Atlantic Ocean, Greater Antilles and into the Turks and
Caicos. Seas of 3-5 ft prevail across the waters between the
Bahamas and Bermuda, with 6-8 ft seas north of Puerto Rico. Over
the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean, seas are mostly in the 8
to 10 ft range. In the NE Atlantic, a 1033 mb high pressure is
near 34N23W. Strong NE winds prevail to the south of this high
pressure, over the waters from the Canary Islands to the Cabo
Verde Islands.

High pressure will remain over the subtropical western Atlantic
into early next week. Fresh to strong easterly winds will continue
across the waters south of 22N tonight through Mon night. A cold
front will move east of northern Florida on Tue and Tue night.
Large seas over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Windward
Islands will persist through Mon.

$$
Stripling
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