[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

Fri Feb 26 12:02:23 CST 2021

AXNT20 KNHC 261802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Feb 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale-force NE to E winds will continue to
pulse within about 90 nm of the northern coast of Colombia for
the next several nights and early mornings, as the pressure
gradient remains enhanced between the Colombian low and high
pressure over the western Atlantic. The strongest winds, up to 40
kt, are expected tonight, Sat night and Sun night. Seas are
forecast to reach 12-17 ft during the periods of strongest winds.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National
Hurricane Center at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border of Sierra
Leone/Guinea near 09N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from
06N20W to 02N30W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 00N-07N between 05W-17W, and from 02S-05N between
40W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Moderate SE to S winds continue over the Gulf of Mexico with no
significant precipitation. Seas are 3-5 ft over the western and
southern Gulf, according to recent buoy observations and an
earlier altimeter pass. Seas are likely currently 1-3 ft over the
NE Gulf. Dense marine fog has been impacting much of the Gulf
Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. The risk of marine fog
in these nearshore Gulf waters will continue through early next
week. Some areas could see breaks in the fog for a few hours
during the afternoons. Moderate to occasionally fresh SE winds
will prevail across the Gulf into early next week. A weak cold
front may reach the western Gulf on Tue and Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features above for information about an ongoing
Gale Warning near the northern coast of Colombia.

Mostly fair weather conditions prevail under the influence of a
middle to upper level anticyclone covering the central and
western Caribbean. A few passing showers are possibly occurring
well to the south of Puerto Rico, over portions of the Leeward
and northern Windward Islands, and to the north of eastern
Honduras. Persistent high pressure north of the area is
supporting fresh trades over the eastern and strong trades over
the central Caribbean, according to the latest ASCAT data pass
from Friday morning. These winds are likely reaching near gale
force along the coast of Colombia. Seas are likely 6-9 ft in the
eastern Caribbean and 4-6 ft in the NW portion of the basin. An
altimeter pass from early Fri morning at 26/0805 UTC showed 8-10
ft seas in the central Caribbean north of 16N, and 9-12 ft seas
from 11N-16N between 72W-74W.

For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue across the
central Caribbean through Tue night, with winds reaching gale
force near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong northeast winds
will continue across the remainder of the Caribbean and Atlantic
Passages through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An E-W oriented dissipating stationary front is along 32N
stretching from Bermuda to Savannah, GA. Moderate showers are
seen south of it from 30N-32N between 68W-74W. A surface trough
extends from 30N59W to 28N67W with isolated showers near it.
Otherwise, surface ridging and gentle winds prevail in the
latitude band of 24N-31N between 40W-81W. Fresh to strong trades
prevail south of 23N, across the tropical Atlantic Ocean, Greater
Antilles and Turks and Caicos. Seas of 3-5 ft prevail across the
waters between the Bahamas and Bermuda, with 6-8 ft seas north of
Puerto Rico. Over the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean, seas
are mostly in the 8 to 11 ft range. In the NE Atlantic, a 1035 mb
high pressure is near 34N23W. Strong NE winds prevail to the
south of this high pressure, over the waters from the Canary
Islands to the Cabo Verde Islands.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain over the subtropical
western Atlantic into early next week. Fresh to strong easterly
winds will continue across the waters south of 22N tonight
through Mon night. A cold front will move east of northern
Florida on Tue and Tue night. Large seas over the tropical
Atlantic waters east of the Windward Islands will persist through
Mon.

$$
Hagen
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