[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261031
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Feb 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale-force NE to E winds will continue to
pulse within about 90 nm of the northern coast of Colombia for
the next several nights, as the pressure gradient remains enhanced
between the Colombian/Panamanian low and high pressure over the
western Atlantic. Seas are forecast to reach 12-17 ft during the
periods of strongest winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at website
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 07N11W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to
01N26W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N
between 09W and 15W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge extending across the northern Gulf from a 1022 mb
high pressure near Tampa Florida continues to support gentle to
moderate E to SE wind flow. Fair weather dominates the basin
under middle to upper level dry air subsidence, except over the
far NW Gulf where dense fog have been reported, including the
coastal waters of Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi.

Moderate to occasionally fresh southeasterly winds will prevail
across most of the Gulf through Mon. A weak cold front may reach
the western Gulf on Tue. Dense fog is possible the next several
mornings over the NW and north-central Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features above for information about an ongoing
gale warning near the northern coast of Colombia.

Mostly fair weather conditions prevail this morning under the
influence of a middle to upper level anticyclone covering the
central and western Caribbean. A few passing showers are evident
near the A-B-C Islands. Persistent high pressure north of the
area is supporting fresh to strong trade winds over the eastern,
central and the SW Caribbean, reaching near gale force along the
coast of Colombia.

High pressure north of the region combined with low pressure in
northern Colombia will continue to support strong trade winds
across central Caribbean through Tue night, with winds reaching
gale force near the coast of Colombia. Highest winds are expected
Sat night. Fresh to strong NE winds will persist across the rest
of the Caribbean and Atlantic Passages through Mon. Large seas to
10 ft will prevail across the tropical Atlantic waters east of the
Windward Islands through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure centered near 28N70W spreads across most of the SW
N Atlantic waters, supporting light to gentle winds, except S of
22N where fresh to locally strong trade winds prevail, including
between the Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

A stationary front in the central Atlantic extending NE from
31N48W continues to weaken. Strong 1033 mb high pressure centered
near 36N22W supports a broad area of fresh NE to E winds south of
the high to 10N and E of 40W, including the Cape Verde Islands.

A ridge of high pressure will prevail across the region through
Mon. Fresh to strong easterly winds will develop across the waters
south of 22N tonight through Mon night. A cold front will move
east of northern Florida on Tue.

$$
Mundell
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