[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230505
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Feb 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building north of the Caribbean
Sea combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will support pulses
of gale-force northeast to east winds within about 90 nm of the
coast of Colombia during the overnight and early morning hours
through the latter part of the week. Seas are forecast to build to
8-12 ft with the strongest winds.

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will push off
the Florida coast by tonight and reach from Bermuda to the Straits
of Florida by mid week. Strong to minimal gale force SW winds and
building seas are expected ahead of the front north of 29N today.
Seas will build to 9-11 ft.

Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the
National Hurricane Center at website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coast of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 02N30W
to 00N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from the equator to 05N between 25W-40W. Similar convection can be
found from 02N-06N between 40W-44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Panama City, Florida to near Brownsville,
Texas. Recent scatterometer data show gentle to moderate winds on
either side of the front. The same ASCAT pass provided observations
of fresh to locally strong northerly winds over the Bay of Campeche.
These winds are funneling through the Chivela pass into the Tehuantepec
region.

A surface trough is analyzed over the NE Gulf while another surface
trough is over the Yucatan peninsula. Low-level clouds with possible
light rain are noted over the western Gulf mainly S of 26N W of
92W. This cloudiness is affecting the Veracruz area.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front is forecast to
stall along 25N by tonight, then lift north and dissipate through
Wed. Looking ahead, a weak front may stall over the Texas coast
Thu and Thu night, and areas of sea fog are possible over the
northwest Gulf by the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the waters off the coast of
Colombia. See the Special Features section for details.

Recent scatterometer data provided observations of fresh to locally
strong trade winds over much of the east and central Caribbean
with gentle to moderate winds over the NW Caribbean. Lighter
winds are noted in the lee of Cuba. Winds in the Windward Passage
and in the lee of Cuba have diminished as high pressure north of
the area shifts eastward. Moderate to fresh winds in these regions
will resume Wed night and pulse to fresh to strong again by Fri
night as high pressure builds once again north of the basin.

Patches of low-level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow,
will continue to move westward across the region producing
isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds in the east and
central Caribbean will continue through Sat night with pulses to
minimal gale force off the coast of Colombia during the overnight
hours. Seas are forecast to build to 8-12 ft over the south-central
Caribbean with the strongest winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning has been issued for Western Atlantic. See the
Special Features section for details. Recent satellite derived
wind data and buoy observations indicate fresh to strong
southerly winds N of 29N between 72W-80W ahead of the cold front
forecast to move off the Florida coast by tonight.

A cold front extends across the Atlantic forecast waters from 31N36W
to 23N56W, then continues westward along 22N-23N as a weakening
stationary front to just N of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong northerly
winds are observed per scatterometer data in the wake of the front
E of 50W, while a belt of fresh to locally strong NE-E winds is
noted N of the front to about 25N W of 50W. Similar wind speeds
are seen just N of Hispaniola. Fresh to strong SW winds are also
ahead of the front N of 29N. The weakening stationary front will
dissipate today.

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the
influence of a weak 1023 mb high pressure located near 24N38W.
Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted between the W coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

$$
GR
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