[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222211
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Feb 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Fresh to locally strong winds off the
coast of Colombia will pulse to gale force off the coast of
Colombia during the overnight hours this week. Sea are forecast
to build to 12 ft during the period of strongest winds.

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will push off
the Florida coast by this evening. The front will reach from
near Bermuda to the Upper Florida Keys by late Tue. Fresh to
strong S-SW winds are expected north of 27N between the front and
70W. Within this area, winds will increase to minimal gale-
force just ahead of the front, particularly from 29N-31N between
74W-76W. The front will continue to push eastward on Tue, with
the winds diminishing below gale- force by Tue night. Seas will
build to 8- 11 ft with the strongest winds.

Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the
National Hurricane Center at website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N13W to 05N20W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N120W to 04N31W to 01S44W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 90 nm of the ITCZ between 25W and 44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida panhandle to near the
Texas-Mexico border. Gentle to moderate winds prevail west of the
front, with light to gentle winds east of the front. Seas are in
the 3-5 ft range across the Gulf waters.

The cold front will reach from near Tampa, Florida to south of
Brownsville, Texas by early Tue. The front will stall along 25N
by Tue night, then lift north and dissipate through Wed. Looking
ahead, a weak front may stall over the Texas coast Thu and Thu
night, with areas of sea fog possible over the northwest Gulf by
the end of the week. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong
northerly winds are expected in the SW gulf tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning has been issued for the waters off the coast of
Colombia. See the Special Features section for details.

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh winds are in the eastern Caribbean, and gentle
to moderate winds are in the western Caribbean. Seas are in the
8-10 ft range over the central Caribbean, 5-7 ft in the eastern
Caribbean, and 4-6 ft over the western Caribbean.

Moderate to fresh NE winds across the Windward Passage and in
the lee of Cuba will diminish this evening as high pressure north
of the area shifts eastward. Moderate to fresh winds in these
regions will resume Wed night and pulse to fresh to strong again,
Fri night. Fresh to locally strong winds in the central and
portions of the SW Caribbean will continue through Sat night with
pulses to gale force off the coast of Colombia during the
overnight hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning has been issued for Western Atlantic. See
the Special Features section for details.

A cold front extends from 32N38W to 25N58W, then continues
westward as a stationary front to the northern Bahamas. High
pressure is building in the wake of the front. Fresh to strong
winds are N of 28N, east of the front to near 34W, and west of
the front to near 54W. Fresh to strong winds are also seen within
90 nm north of the stationary front between 60W and 72W. Moderate
to fresh winds prevail elsewhere north of the front. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate winds prevail north of 20N, with moderate to
fresh tradewinds south of 20N.

For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, the stationary
front will dissipate tonight. High pressure building in the wake
of the front will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds
across the western Atlantic S of 27N through early this evening.
The next front will move off the NE Florida coast tonight and
reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by mid week. Strong
to minimal gale force SW winds and building seas are expected
ahead of the front north of 29N Tue. Weak ridging will extend
from Bermuda to northeast Florida from mid week trough Sat.

$$
AL
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