[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151724
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Gale force winds have been occurring
this morning and early afternoon to the west of a 1008 mb low
pressure offshore southeast Louisiana and Mississippi, and behind
a cold front offshore of lower Texas and northeast Mexico,
including offshore of Tampico. Pilots Station East at Southwest
Pass, Louisiana (28.9N 89.4W) measured winds of 53 kt gusting to
62 kt at an elevation of 20m (67 ft) above sea-level at 1524 UTC.
An oil platform KMIS, located just E of the Mouth of the
Mississippi River near 29.3N 88.8W, recently measured sustained
winds of 46 kt and a gust of 55 kt at an elevation of 85m
(279 ft) above sea level at 1635 UTC. Seas up to 17 ft are
currently occurring offshore of Tampico and will persist through
the afternoon hours. NOAA buoy 42055 at 22.1N 93.9W recently
measured significant wave heights of 16 ft at 1650 UTC and NNW
winds of 29 kt gusting to 37 kt. Winds will diminish below gale
force by late afternoon or early evening today. Seas will
subside in the western Gulf by early Tue.

Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient is developing
over the south-central Caribbean that will persist through at
least mid-week. With this, gale force winds are expected to pulse
at night within 90 nm off the coast of Colombia tonight through
Wed night.

See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean off the coast of
Guinea near 09N14W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to
02S45W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 02N-07N between 07W-21W, from 01N-04N between 25W-36W,
and from 02S-02N between 39W-48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1008 mb low is to the south of southeastern Louisiana. A cold
front extends from the low to Veracruz Mexico. Gale force winds
are currently occurring west of the low and cold front. See the
Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning. A
weak 1013 mb low is located just offshore Tampa and the Florida
Big Bend. An east-west oriented front connects the two low
pressures in the Gulf. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is seen north of 26.5N between Pensacola and southeast
Louisiana. Additional isolated showers and storms are seen south
of the 1013 mb low, to the west of Tampa. Freezing rain and light
snow have recently been reported along the coast of Louisiana at
Baton Rouge and Patterson.

For the forecast, any snow/frozen precipitation that is occurring
over the Gulf of Mexico or along the coast of Louisiana or
Mississippi should end by early afternoon today. The gale force
winds over the Gulf of Mexico will diminish by late afternoon as
the 1008 mb low lifts north of the area, with the trailing cold
front extending from the western Florida panhandle to 25N89W to
the northwest Yucatan Peninsula. The cold front will weaken as it
reaches the far southeastern Gulf Tue, where it is expected to
become stationary, before lifting back north as a warm front Tue
night and Wed. Another low pressure system will track E-NE across
the NW Gulf on Wed and Wed night dragging a strong cold front
across the western Gulf. This cold front is expected to reach
from Apalachicola Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche Thu, and
exit the Gulf Fri. Gale conditions are possible behind this front
off Veracruz on Thu. Strong to near gale force southerly winds
are possible ahead of this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gale force winds are forecast to occur at night within 90 nm of
the coast of Colombia tonight through Wed night. See the Special
Features section for details.

Scattered showers and tstorms are seen on satellite imagery to
the west of Jamaica, near the Cayman Islands, and extending to
the south coast of western Cuba. Elsewhere, only typical isolated
trade wind showers are seen due to relatively dry air. Recent
scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trade winds across
most of the central and eastern parts of the basin, with moderate
to locally fresh winds in the western portion of the basin. Seas
are estimated to be 6 to 9 ft over the eastern and central
Caribbean, with 3 to 5 ft in the northwest Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will maintain
fresh to strong trade winds across the central and eastern
Caribbean through Thu. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale
force at night through Wed. Southeast winds will increase in the
Gulf of Honduras from Wed night into Thu as a strong cold front
approaches from the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front will move
through the NW Caribbean Fri followed by strong northerly winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N76W to Daytona Beach Florida.
Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen between 60-120 nm
to the SE of the cold front, mainly N of 27.5N and E of 79.5W. A
recent ASCAT pass shows gentle to moderate winds prevailing over
most of the west Atlantic, except for fresh to locally strong
winds to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. A pair of 1026
mb highs are located near 29N61W and 28N55W, respectively.
Farther E, a weakening stationary front extends from 32N24W to
26N41W. Scattered moderate showers are seen along and N of the
front. Fresh to strong trade winds prevail over the tropical
Atlantic from 03N-22N between 35W-61W. Gentle winds are generally
from 24N-31N, where the subtropical ridge is. Large north swell
will continue to affect the tropical N Atlantic waters, to the
east of the Lesser Antilles, through Thu before subsiding Thu
night through Fri night. Currently, seas are 9 to 11 ft from the
Tropical N Atlantic waters northward into the east-central
Atlantic.

For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will
support fresh to strong winds north of Hispaniola through Thu
night. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop east of
northern Florida tonight through Tue ahead of a cold front that
will move east of Florida on Tue. The front will become
stationary Tue night from near 31N74W to West Palm Beach Florida,
then lift northward Wed and dissipate Wed night. Scattered
tstorms, some possibly strong with gusty winds along a squall
line, are expected ahead of the front tonight. Winds will
increase over the western Atlantic, including the waters between
the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola, beginning on Thu as a
cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. The front will move
east of Florida early on Fri, and extend from near 31N71W to the
central Bahamas to central Cuba late Fri. Fresh to strong
northerly winds will follow this front.

$$
Hagen
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