[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151011
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Feb 15 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1008 mb low is centered near
26N94W, with cold front extending from the low to 21N97W. Gale
force northerly winds are expected in the northwestern and west-
central Gulf today to the west of the low pressure and behind the
front. Seas will increase to 17 ft Mon over the west central Gulf near
the coast of Mexico. Winds and seas will diminish across the
region by early Tue.

Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient will develop over
the south-central Caribbean through at least mid-week. With this,
gale force winds are expected to pulse at night within 90 nm off
the coast of Colombia, on Tue night and Wed night.

See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National
Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean off the coast of
Sierra Leone near 09N14W to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from
04N21W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 3N-
5N between 10W-25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Mexico. See the
Special Features section for details.

A 1008 mb low is centered near 26N94W, with cold front extending
from the low to 21N97W. A weaker frontal boundary extends from the
low to the east to near 29N83W. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh winds along and north of the low/fronts, while
light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere outside of the gale area.
Convection is ongoing in the far northwestern gulf behind the
system with seas ranging 8-11 ft.

The cold front will and the associated low pressure will move
eastward across the basin. Gale force northerly winds are expected
in the northwestern and west-central Gulf through this evening to
the west of the low pressure and behind the front. A mix of
precipitation is likely along the coastlines of Texas and
Louisiana this morning. Winds and seas will diminish across the
region by early Tue. The next cold front will enter the western
Gulf late Wed, then exit east of the basin by Fri afternoon.
Strong to near gale force winds are likely to precede and follow
this front across the basin, with gale force winds possible off
Veracruz Thu.

On a side note, strong westerly winds are observed east of the
Sierra Madre Occidental over northern Mexico. This pattern may
persist through the early part of the week. These winds could
reach gale force and appear to be related to a strong mid-level
trough and high terrain in that region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning has been issued for the south-central Caribbean.
See the Special Features section for details.

Recent scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trade winds
across most of the central and eastern parts of the basin, with
mainly moderate winds in the western portion of the basin. Fresh
to strong winds are likely still occurring south of Hispaniola
to Colombia and western Venezuela. Seas are estimated to be 6 to
9 ft over the eastern and central Caribbean, with 4 to 6 ft in the
northwest Caribbean. High pressure north of the area is allowing
for dry conditions to prevail, aside from scattered fast-moving
showers embedded in the trade wind flow in the central Caribbean.

The high pressure north of the area will maintain fresh
to strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean
through the middle of this week. SE winds will increase to strong in
the Gulf of Honduras on Wed night/early Thu also as a strong cold
front approaches from the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front is
expected to enter the NW Caribbean Fri, with strong N winds behind
the front. Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical
N Atlantic waters, to the east of the Lesser Antilles, through
the middle of this week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends off the coast of Jacksonville,
Florida to 31N79W. Fresh to strong southerly winds are noted within
100 nm east of the front and north of 28N. No significant weather
is noted elsewhere. A surface ridge extends from 1025 mb high
pressure near 29N55W eastward into east Florida. This pattern is
maintaining gentle to moderate SE winds mostly north of 22N, and
moderate to fresh E winds south of 22N. Seas are generally 5-10 ft
in open waters. A stationary front enters our area near 31N26W
extending to 26N42W. No significant weather is associated with
this front. Mostly gentle to moderate winds persist north of 20N,
with moderate to fresh trades prevalent south of 20N, mainly south
of the high pressure west of 50W. Large NW swell in excess of 8
ft dominates mainly east of 55W, with the highest seas over the
discussion area possibly reaching 14 ft near 32N30W.

For the forecast, high pressure over the region will support
fresh to strong winds north of Hispaniola through Thu night.
Fresh to strong S winds are expected east of northern Florida
tonight and Tue ahead of a cold front that will move off Florida
on Tue. The front will become stationary Tue night from 31N74W to
West Palm Beach Florida before lifting north and dissipating Wed
night. Winds will increase from N of Hispaniola through the
Bahamas and east of Florida early Thu as a cold front moves E
through the Gulf of Mexico. This front will move E of Florida
early Fri, and extend from 31N71W to central Cuba Fri evening.
Fresh to strong winds will follow the front.

Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical north
Atlantic waters and east of the Lesser Antilles through the
middle of the week.

$$
ERA
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