[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140557
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Feb 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0450 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front with attendant
low pressure will move off the coast of Texas late Sun night.
This front will reach from Tampa Bay Florida to Cancun Mexico
by early Tue, then dissipate Tue night. Gale force northerly
winds are expected in the western Gulf late Sun night through
Mon to the west of the low pressure and behind the front. Winds
will reach near 40 kt by Mon within 120 nm of the Texas coast
and coast of Mexico, with seas reaching near 17 ft off Tampico
by Mon afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish across the region
on Tue. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National
Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Sierra Leone, Africa near 08N13W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues
from 04N19W to 02N35W to 00N50W near the mouth of the Amazon
River. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
within 90 nm on either side of the axis west of 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Mexico. See the
Special Features section for details.

A stationary front enters the Gulf through the Apalachee bay
near 30N84W and extends SW to 21N92W. A 1008 mb low is along this
boundary centered near 27N87W. A recent scatterometer pass
indicated fresh to strong NE to N winds over the northwest Gulf,
where seas are estimated to be 6 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh S to
SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident elsewhere east of the
front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident east of the
frontal boundary from the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula
to the Florida Big Bend.

The front will weaken through Sun night. A strong cold front
with attendant low pressure will move off the coast of Texas on
Sun night. The front will reach from Tampa Bay Florida to Cancun
Mexico by early Tue, then dissipate Tue night. Gale force
northerly winds are expected in the western Gulf late Sun night
through Monday to the west of the low pressure and behind the
front. Winds and seas will diminish across the region on Tue.
The next cold front will enter the western Gulf Wed night, and
reach from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula Thu
night. Strong to near gale force winds are likely to precede
and follow this front across the basin, with gale-force winds
possible off Veracruz Thu.

On a side note, the GFS and ECMWF global models indicate strong
westerly winds east of the Sierra Madre Occidental over
northern Mexico late this weekend and early next week. These
winds could reach gale force and appear to be related to a
strong mid-level trough and high terrain in that region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent scatterometer data indicated moderate to fresh trade
winds across most of the eastern and western parts of the
basin, with fresh to strong trades south of Hispanola to
Colombia and western Venezuela. Seas are estimated to be 6 to
9 ft over the eastern and central Caribbean, with 4 to 6 ft
in the northwest Caribbean. High pressure north of the area
is allowing for dry conditions to prevail, aside from
isolated fast-moving showers embedded in the trade wind flow
in the central Caribbean.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean through
the middle of next week. By that time, winds off Colombia will
pulse to near gale force at night, with gales possible Wed
night. SE winds will increase in the Gulf of Honduras Wed
night into Thu as a strong cold front moves through the area.
Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical N
Atlantic waters, to the east of the Lesser Antilles, through
the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 65W, a stationary front extends from 32N76W to near
Jacksonville, Florida. Showers and thunderstorms are noted
south of the front moving off the Florida coast, north of
Melbourne, FL. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds off the coast
of northeast Florida south of the front are starting to
increase to moderate to fresh with seas building to 7 ft.
Farther east, a 1026 mb surface high pressure center is near
27N31W and broad ridging dominates across most of the Atlantic
basin. Moderate to fresh E winds are evident south of 22N, to
the south of the ridge. Seas in open waters are mostly 5-10 ft.

For the forecast, the front will lift north of the area Sun
night. High pressure over the region will support fresh to
occasionally strong winds north of Hispaniola through Wed. Fresh
to strong S winds are expected east of northern Florida Mon
night and Tue ahead of a weak cold front that will move off
Florida Tue. The front will become stationary Wed from 31N74W
to Vero Beach Florida before lifting north and dissipating Wed
night. Winds will increase from N of Hispaniola through the
Bahamas and east of Florida Thu as a cold front moves E through
the Gulf of Mexico, and the pressure gradient tightens in the W
Atlantic.

Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical north
Atlantic waters, east of the Lesser Antilles, through the middle
of next week.

$$
Mora
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