[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132303
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Feb 13 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front with attendant
low pressure will move off the coast of Texas late Sun night.
This front will reach from Tampa Bay Florida to Cancun Mexico by
early Tue, then dissipate Tue night. Gale force northerly winds
are expected in the western Gulf late Sun night through Mon to
the west of the low pressure and behind the front. Winds will
reach near 40 kt by Mon within 120 nm of the Texas coast and
coast of Mexico, with seas reaching near 17 ft off Tampico by Mon
afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish across the region on
Tue. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the the Sierra
Leone/Liberia border and continues to 03N1820W. The ITCZ extends
from 03N20W to 00N50W near the mouth of the Amazon River.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within
60 nm either side of the axis west of 25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Mexico. See the
Special Features section for details.

A stationary front extends from Panama City, Florida to 1010 mb low
pressure near 26N90W to the far southwest Gulf near 19N95W. A
recent scatterometer pass indicated fresh to strong NW to N winds
over the northwest Gulf, where seas are estimated to be 6 to 8
ft. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are
evident elsewhere west of the front, and gentle to moderate E to
SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted east of the front. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms are evident within 180 nm east
of the frontal boundary, primarily off the coast of Yucatan, and
over the northeast Gulf.

This front will reach from Tampa Bay Florida to Cancun Mexico by
early Tue, then dissipate Tue night. Gale force
northerly winds are expected in the western Gulf late Sun night
through Monday to the west of the low pressure and behind the
front. A light wintry mix of precipitation could reach the
coastline of Texas and western Louisiana late Sun night into Mon.
Winds and seas will diminish across the region on Tue. The next
cold front will enter the western Gulf Wed night, and reach from
the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula Thu night. Strong
to near gale force winds are likely to precede and follow this
front across the basin, with gale force winds possible off
Veracruz Thu.

On a side note, the GFS and ECMWF global models indicate strong
westerly winds east of the Sierra Madre Occidental over northern
Mexico late this weekend and early next week. These winds could
reach gale force and appear to be related to a strong mid-level
trough and high terrain in that region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent buoy and ship observations along with earlier
scatterometer satellite data indicated moderate to fresh trade
winds across most of the eastern and central Caribbean, with
fresh to strong trade winds south Hispaniola and off northeast
Colombia. Moderate to fresh SE winds were evident over the
northwest Caribbean. Seas are estimated to be 6 to 9 ft over the
eastern and central Caribbean, with 4 to 6 ft in the northwest
Caribbean. Grand Cayman radar shows a few showers moving to the
N-NW into the Isle of Youth and western Cuba. A line of
thunderstorms off the coast of Yucatan is moving eastward toward
the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, no significant shower or
thunderstorm activity is noted.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will maintain
fresh to strong trade winds across the central and eastern
Caribbean through Thu. By the middle of next week, winds off
Colombia will pulse to near gale force at night, with gales
possible Wed night. SE winds will increase in the Gulf of
Honduras Wed night into Thu as a strong cold front moves through
the Gulf of Mexico. Large north swell will continue to affect the
tropical N Atlantic waters, to the east of the Lesser Antilles,
through the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 65W, a stationary front extends from 32N78W to near
Jacksonville, Florida. Showers and thunderstorms are noted south
of the front, moving in a line from near Fort Pierce, Florida to
32N75W. A surface ridge extends along roughly 26N/27N through the
northern Bahamas. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds off the coast
of northeast Florida south of the front are starting to increase
to moderate to fresh with seas building to 7 ft. Moderate to
fresh E winds are also evident south of 22N, to the south of the
ridge. Seas in open waters are mostly 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, the front will lift north of the area Sun
night. High pressure over the region will support fresh to
occasionally strong winds north of Hispaniola through Wed. Fresh
to strong S winds are expected east of northern Florida Mon night
and Tue ahead of a weak cold front that will move off Florida
Tue. The front will become stationary Wed from 31N74W to Vero
Beach Florida before lifting north and dissipating Wed night.
Winds will increase from N of Hispaniola through the Bahamas and
east of Florida Thu as a cold front moves E through the Gulf of
Mexico, and the pressure gradient tightens in the W Atlantic.

Farther east, broad ridging dominates the waters north of 20N,
centered on 1027 mb high pressure near 27N32W and 1025 mb high
pressure near 26N52W, with a weak front in between the two high
pressure areas. Fresh trades and 8 to 10 ft seas are noted south
of 20N. Fresh NE winds and 8 to 10 ft seas in mixed swell are
noted north of 20N east of 35W, and gentle to moderate winds and
5 to 8 ft seas noted elsewhere over North Atlantic waters south
of 32N.

Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical north
Atlantic waters, east of the Lesser Antilles, through the middle
of next week.

$$
Christensen
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