[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131035
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Feb 13 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 07N12W to
03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 00N32W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted in the deep tropics
from 01.5N to 03.5N between 22W and 47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from 30N85W in the Florida panhandle
to a 1008 mb low near 25N92W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N95W.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 90 nm of the
frontal boundary. Isolated showers are observed elsewhere east
of the front.

The front over the Gulf of Mexico will stall and weaken through
Sun night. A strong cold front is expected to move off the coast
of Texas early Mon, and reach from the Big Bend of Florida to
the Yucatan Peninsula by early Tue. Low pres may develop along
this front early Mon in the NW Gulf. Gale force northerly winds
are likely in the western Gulf behind the front and west of the
low on Mon. Winds and seas will diminish on Tue. Southeasterly
return flow will increase over the western Gulf Tue night ahead
of another cold front that will emerge off the Texas coast Wed.

On a side note, the GFS and ECWMF global models indicate strong
westerly winds east of the Sierra Madre Occidental over northern
Mexico late this weekend and early next week. These winds could
reach gale force and appear to be related to a strong mid-level
trough and high terrain in that region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate high pressure north of the area is promoting fresh to
locally strong easterly winds over south-central Caribbean. An
area of moderate showers is located in the SE Caribbean south of
14N between 60W and 67W. No significant deep convection is
occurring elswhere.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean through Wed
night. Fresh to strong SE winds are expected in the Gulf of
Honduras this morning. Large north swell will continue to affect
the tropical N Atlantic waters through the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening surface ridge prevails across the Atlantic between
40W and 80W. A weak cold front extends into the forecast waters
between 32N29N and 28N41W, with no significant winds. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 29N to 32N west of 78W.

A weak cold front moving off the SE U.S. coast tonight will
stall and lift north of the area through Sun night. High
pressure over the region will support fresh to occasionally
strong winds north of Hispaniola through Wed. Fresh to strong S
winds are expected east of northern Florida Mon night and Tue
ahead of a weak cold front that will move off Florida late Tue.

Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical north
Atlantic waters, east of the Lesser Antilles, through the middle
of next week.

$$
Mundell
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