[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Feb 13 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 06N10W, to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W,
to the Equator along 32W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
strong is from 02N to 03N between 21W and 33W, and from 03N to
04N between 39W and 43W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N
southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front enters the northern parts of Florida, from the
Atlantic Ocean near 32N76W. The front continues from Florida
Panhandle to a 1013 mb SW Georgia low pressure center. The cold
front continues from the SW Georgia low pressure center, to a
1007 mb central Gulf of Mexico low pressure center. The cold
front continues to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, beyond
19N96W at the coast of Mexico. A surface trough extends from
just to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula, through the western
sections of the Yucatan Peninsula, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
of southern Mexico. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong in the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated moderate is
inland: in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, in Guatemala, and in
the eastern parts of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico.

Strong northerly winds will continue in the western Gulf of
Mexico overnight. The current cold front, from the Florida
Panhandle to the western Bay of Campeche, will stall and weaken
through Sun night. A strong cold front is expected to move off
the coast of Texas early on Monday. The strong cold front will
reach from the Big Bend of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula by
early Tue. Gale force northerly winds are possible in the
western Gulf of Mexico behind the front on Mon. The winds and
the seas will diminish across the region on Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model, for 250 mb, for the southern half of the
Caribbean Sea shows SW wind flow. The GFS model for 500 mb, and
for 700 mb, for the same area, shows broad cyclonic wind flow.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, spanning the Caribbean Sea.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, span the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated
moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level
wind flow.

High pressure to the north of the area will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds in the central and the eastern Caribbean Sea
through Wed night. Fresh to strong SE winds are expected in the
Gulf of Honduras through Sat morning. Large north swell will
continue to affect the tropical N Atlantic Ocean through the
middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N76W, to north central Florida.
The cold front continues to a 1013 mb SW Georgia low pressure
center. Precipitation: isolated moderate covers the areas that
are from the Greater Antilles northward from 70W westward.
Isolated moderate also is from 28N northward between 50W and
70W.

A cold front passes through 32N31W to 30N36W, to 29N42W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 28N
northward between 20W and 50W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb Madeira Archipelago high
pressure center, to 30N20W, 28N30W, to 26N42W, and to 29N71W.

A weak cold front moving off the SE U.S. coast Sat night will
stall and lift north of the area through Sun night. High
pressure over the region will support fresh to occasionally
strong winds north of Hispaniola through Wed. Fresh to strong S
winds are expected east of northern Florida Mon night and Tue
ahead of a weak cold front that will move off Florida late Tue.
A weak cold front will move off the SE U.S.A. coast on Saturday
night. The front will stall in the NW forecast waters on Sunday,
then move to the north of the area on Sunday night. High
pressure across the region will support fresh to occasionally
strong winds to the north of
Hispaniola through Sunday night. A weak cold front will move to
the east of Florida on Tuesday.

$$
mt/dm
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