[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031702
TWDAT

AXNT20 KNHC 031040
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Feb 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from
31N60W to Hispaniola near 20N71W. Gale force winds are north of
27N west of the front to 77W, and are expected to persist through
this evening. Seas are 12-18 ft. Please read the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 05N19W. The ITCZ then continues from 05N19W to the
coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed on satellite south of the monsoon
trough from 03N to 07N east of 14W. Along the ITCZ, scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted between 33W and
42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the basin, with gentle flow
along the southern portion of the ridge. Seas are less than
3 ft in the W Gulf, and 3-5 ft in the E Gulf.

The ridge across the southern U.S. that extends into the
Gulf of Mexico will shift eastward through Thu, ahead of
a cold front that will move into the northern Gulf early
Fri morning. The front will stall from the Big Bend of
Florida to Brownsville, Texas Fri afternoon, then weaken
and drift northward through Sat night. Fresh to locally
strong southerly winds are expected ahead of the front
on Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from northern Hispaniola near
20N71W to Panama near 09N82W. Fresh to locally strong
northerly winds are likely along and just west of the
frontal boundary, with gentle to moderate N winds observed
in the NW Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trade winds
prevail E of the front, with fresh NE winds off the coast
of Colombia. Seas are 5-7 ft in most of the Caribbean,
except for an area of 6-10 ft seas in the SW Caribbean
where winds are highest.

Of note over Cuban territory and adjacent waters, the
cold air behind the stationary front led 22 local stations
to report low temperatures below 10 deg C/50 deg F. The
lowest temperature of 5 deg C/41 deg F was recorded over
Playa Giron, Matanzas.

The stationary front will weaken this afternoon. High
pressure building north of the area will support fresh
to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean
Thu night through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Atlantic. Please
see the Special Features section above for more details.

A strong cold front extends from 31N60W to Hispaniola
near 20N71W. Outside of the Gale Warning, strong westerly
winds north of 25N west of the front were observed on
the latest scatterometer pass. Fresh to moderate to
gentle W to NW winds extend south of 25N west of the
front to the Greater Antilles. East of the front, strong
SW winds are noted north of 27N to 55W.

Over the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, high
pressure north of the area continues to impose mostly
fair weather across the basin. Moderate N to NE winds
are noted east of 30W, with moderate to fresh return
flow west of 30W. Some scattered showers are present
from 07N to 15N east of 23W.

The cold front will reach from 24N65W to the Dominican
Republic later today, then stall and weaken further
on Thu. Reinforcing cold air will maintain near-gale
to gale-force conditions today, with winds diminishing
tonight and Thu. Long period northerly swell in the
wake of the front will propagate across the forecast
waters to the Caribbean passages through Thu.


$$
Mahoney/MMT
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