[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031040
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Feb 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from
32N59W to Hispaniola near 20N71W. Scatterometer data shows gale-
force SW to W winds north of 27N, west of the front, and similar
conditions are expected to persist most of today. Highest seas
associated with the front are 20 to 21 ft. Please read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 07N12W
to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 01N40W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted 60 nm on either
side of the boundary along its entire length between 10W - 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the basin. Scatterometer and buoy
data shows fresh to strong N to NW winds continue in the NE Gulf
and moderate to fresh winds are observed elsewhere east of 89W.
Winds will gradually diminish today as the high pressure shifts
eastward. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range over the SE Gulf, 1-3 ft
over the NW Gulf, and 3-6 ft elsewhere.

High pressure across the southern U.S. that extends into the
Gulf of Mexico will shift eastward through Thursday, ahead of a
cold front that will move into the northern Gulf early Friday
morning. The front will stall from the Big Bend of Florida to
Brownsville Texas Friday afternoon, then weaken and drift
northward though Saturday night. Fresh to locally strong
southerly winds are expected ahead of the front on Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from southern Haiti near 18N73W to the
border between Costa Rica and Panama. Scatterometer data shows
fresh to strong northerly winds south of 18N, west of the
frontal boundary. Fresh easterly winds are noted in the south-
central Caribbean near the northern coast of Venezuela. Seas are
7 to 9 ft south of 18N west of the front, 6 to 7 ft in the south
central Caribbean, 4 to 6 ft elsewhere in the Caribbean, and 8
to 10 ft in northerly swell east of the Windward Islands in the
tropical North Atlantic.

Winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica will diminish
today as the cold front stall and weakens from the Dominican
Republic to Panama this afternoon. High pressure building north
of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds across the
central Caribbean Thu night through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for western Atlantic waters today.
Please see the Special Features section above for details.

A strong cold front extends from 32N59W to Hispaniola near
20N71W. Elsewhere west of the cold front, strong westerly winds
will continue through tonight, while moderate to fresh south to
southwest winds are expected north of 25N east of the front.
Altimeter and buoy data indicate large seas are occurring east
of the Bahamas, in the 10 to 20 ft range. Seas are 6-11 ft south
of 22N east of the Bahamas.

The strong cold front will reach from 24N65W to the Dominican
Republic later today, then stall and weaken on Thu. Reinforcing
cold air will maintain near-gale to gale-force conditions today,
with winds diminishing tonight and Thu. Long period northerly
swell in the wake of the front will propagate across the
forecast waters east of the Bahamas to the Caribbean passages
and the tropical north Atlantic through Thu.

$$
Mundell
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