[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011739
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Feb 1 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front in the W
Atlantic will continue to quickly move east this morning,
reaching from 32N61W to the Dominican Republic by early Wed. Gale-
force southerly winds are expected ahead of this front north of
27N today through Tue night, as the front moves eastward between
80W and 61W. Near gale force W to NW winds are expected behind the
front this afternoon into Tue afternoon, with frequent gusts to
gale force. Seas associated with the front are currently 11-14 ft,
and will build to 12-15 ft by Tue in the gale area. Please read
the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and continues to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues
from 06N20W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection exists near
the ITCZ from 00N to 05N between 30W and 41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, the strong cold front extends from the Florida
Straits, along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, to
the coast of Veracruz, Mexico near 19N96W. NWS Doppler Radar
shows scattered moderate to isolated strong convection along the
frontal boundary. Fresh to strong winds with 6-10 ft seas are
noted behind the front. Deep layer dry air supports fair weather
basin-wide.

The cold front will quickly exit the Gulf by this afternoon.
Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the Gulf through
Tuesday. As the ridge gradually shifts east Tue and Wed,
southerly winds will return across the Gulf with seas building
over the western Gulf ahead of the next cold front. The cold front
will reach the Texas coast Thu night and move across the NW and
north- central Gulf Fri and Fri night followed by fresh northerly
winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The strong to near gale force trade winds in the central
Caribbean have diminished to fresh to strong this morning as
high pressure north of the area shifts eastward. In this area,
seas are analyzed 8-12 ft. Moderate to fresh trades prevail
elsewhere in the eastern and central Caribbean, with 6-9 ft.
Gentle trades in the NW Caribbean observed by the latest
scatterometer pass are accompanied by seas of 3-6 ft.

Fresh to locally strong winds and large long-period N swell over
the E Caribbean, NE Caribbean passages and the Tropical N
Atlantic will start to diminish Tue evening. A cold front is
forecast to quickly enter the NW Caribbean today, then stall as it
reaches from the Dominican Republic to the central Caribbean by
early Wed. Fresh to strong winds following the front will affect
the NW Caribbean today through Tue morning and the SW Caribbean
from Tue through Wed night. Fresh to strong winds will re-develop
over the central Caribbean and the Windward Passage Wed night and
prevail through Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning associated with a quick moving cold front is
in effect for western Atlantic waters today through Tue night.
Please see the Special Features section above for details.

As of 1500 UTC, the strong cold front associated with the Gale
Warning extends from 31N76W to the Florida Straits. Outside of
the Gale Warning, strong W to SW winds were observed by ASCAT
behind the front with strong ESE winds ahead of the front, all
north of 25N. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the
front, mainly north of 29N. An additional area of scattered
moderate convection is located ahead of the front from 24N to
31N between 70W and 76W, moving to the NE. Seas W of 65W are
6-9 ft except within the Gale Warning.

For the forecast W of 65W, the strong cold front will progress
eastward extending from 30N61W to the Dominican Republic from
19N68W by Wed. The front will stall before dissipating early on
Thu. Gale force southerly winds are ahead of this front and will
shift eastward with the front through early Wed. Northerly
long-period swell associated with the front will propagate
through the forecast waters today through mid-week, combining
with residual swell from a former front. The swell will begin to
subside as it becomes confined to the eastern section of the area
Thu through Fri night.

In the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, 1025 mb high
pressure near 30N54W and another 1025 mb high pressure near the
Madeira Islands dominate. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail.
A weakening cold front extends from 31N35W to 28N41W where a
weakening stationary front then continues to 20N61W. The front
will dissipate later today or tonight.

$$
Mahoney/ERA
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