[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011051
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Feb 1 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move east
of northern Florida this morning, and reach from 32N61W to the
Dominican Republic by early Wed. Gale-force southerly winds are
expected ahead of this front north of 27N today through Tue night,
as the front moves eastward between 80W and 61W. Near gale force
W to NW winds are expected behind the front this afternoon into
Tue afternoon, with frequent gusts to gale force. Seas associated
with the front will quickly build to 10-14 ft today, and to 12-17
ft by Tue in the gale area. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of the strong high
pressure north of the area and low pressure over northern
Colombia will support gale conditions through this morning off
the coast of Colombia. Seas of 10 to 13 ft are expected in the
area. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and continues to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues
from 06N20W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection exists near
the ITCZ from 01N-05N between 32W-43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extending from Sarasota, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico
will reach from Fort Myers, Florida to the northern Yucatan
Peninsula today and move east of the area late Mon afternoon.
Fresh to strong winds ahead and behind the front will prevail
through tonight with seas to 9 ft. Deep layer dry air supports
fair weather basin-wide.

Strong southerly winds along with building seas will develop over
the western Gulf on Wed and shift to the central Gulf by Fri
ahead of the next cold front that will reach the Texas coast Thu
night and move across the NW and north-central Gulf Fri and Fri
night followed by fresh northerly winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the waters offshore of Colombia
through the early morning hours today. See the Special Features
section above for details.

Strong to near gale-force trade winds in the central Caribbean
will diminish to fresh to strong this morning as high pressure N
of the area shifts eastward. Gale force winds near the coast of
Colombia will diminish as well. Fresh to locally strong winds and
large long-period N swell over the E Caribbean, NE Caribbean
passages and the Tropical N Atlantic will start to diminish Tue
evening. A cold front is forecast to reach from western Cuba to
the Yucatan Peninsula later today, then stall as it reaches from
the Dominican Republic to the central Caribbean by early Wed.
Fresh to strong winds following the front will affect the NW
Caribbean today through Tue morning and the SW Caribbean from Tue
through Wed night. Fresh to strong winds will re-develop over the
central Caribbean and the Windward Passage Wed night and prevail
through Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the SW N Atlantic waters today
through Tue night. See the Special Features section above for
details.

A strong cold front will move east of northern Florida today, and
reach from near 25N65W to the Dominican Republic by early Wed
where it will stall before dissipating early on Thu. Gale force
southerly winds are ahead of this front and will shift eastward
with the front through early Wed. Northerly long-period swell
associated with the front will propagate through the forecast
waters today through mid-week, combining with residual swell from
a former front. The swell will begin to subside as it becomes
confined to the eastern section of the area Thu through Fri night.

Otherwise, strong high pressure dominates the central and eastern
Atlantic with a weakening cold front from 31N36W to 27N43W where
it stalls to 20N61W. The ridge is supporting fresh trades S of
21N. The front will dissipate tonight.

$$
Ramos
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net