[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jan 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning...

The 36-hour forecast, from the 01/0000 UTC forecast, consists
of: a cold front along 29N91W 24N97W. Expect gale-force winds,
and sea heights that will be building toward 8 feet, from 26N to
29N between 94W and 97W, in the Gulf of Mexico. Please, read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National
Hurricane Center, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes
through the coastal plains of Liberia near 06N10W to 05N17W,
02N25W, 01N38W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 06N southward from 50W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind warning for the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge passes from an Atlantic Ocean 1022 mb high
pressure center that is near 26N73W, through the NW Bahamas,
through Florida along 26N, into the NW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. toward the Texas Gulf coast between the upper part of the
coast and the central Texas Gulf coast.

Fresh-to-strong SE winds are within 360 nm of the Texas coast.
Near gale-force winds are from 100 nm to 180 nm of the coast of
Texas between 94W and 96W. Fresh winds are blowing through the
Straits of Florida. Moderate breezes or slower cover the rest of
the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet
in the eastern one-third of the area. The sea heights range from
3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere.

Surface high pressure centered E of the Bahamas will remain
nearly stationary through Sun supporting moderate to locally
fresh return flow across the central and western basin,
increasing to fresh to strong speeds tonight as the pressure
gradient increases ahead of a strong cold front forecast to come
off the coast of Texas early on Sun. Strong to near gale force
northerly winds will follow this front across the basin, with
gale conditions affecting the NW and SW basin on Sun and Sun
night. The front is forecast to move east of the Gulf Mon
morning. Winds and seas associated with the front will subside
gradually through Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A remnant cloud line is along 14N60W 15N66W 15N70W, to NE
Nicaragua. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 60 nm
on either side of the cloud line.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere, from 14N southward
from 70W eastward, and in the SW corner of the area.

The sea heights range from 8 feet to 10 feet within 360 nm to
the north of the coast of Colombia between 70W and 80W. The sea
heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere. Near gale-force
winds are within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia between 73W and
77W. Strong winds cover much of the rest of the Caribbean Sea
from the Greater Antilles southward between 64W and 80W.
Fresh-to-moderate breezes cover the rest of the area.

High pressure centered E of the Bahamas is forecast to remain
nearly-stationary through Sun, supporting moderate to fresh
trade winds across the Caribbean, except for locally strong
winds in the Gulf of Honduras, central Caribbean and portions of
the SW basin. The tail of a cold front will enter the far NW
Caribbean Mon morning supporting moderate to locally fresh NE
winds and building seas in the Yucatan channel. The front will
stall from western Cuba to Belize by Mon night before
dissipating early on Tue. Winds will diminish to moderate speeds
over the NW and E Caribbean on Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N23W 27N30W 21N40W 19N48W. A
surface trough, that is remaining from an early and
already-dissipated frontal boundary, is within 260 nm to the SE
of the cold front, from 15N to 28N. Precipitation: rainshowers
are possible to the northwest of the line that passes through
31N20W 18N30W 13N40W 12N50W 12N60W. A warm front/cold front/low
pressure center covers the Atlantic Ocean from 26N northward
between 43W and 60W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 26N northward between 40W and 60W.

The sea heights range from 8 feet to 10 feet in much of the area
that is between 30W and 60W, and to the northwest of the line
31N13W 19N30W. The sea heights range from 10 feet to 13 feet
from 20N northward between 20W and 50W. The sea heights range
from 5 feet to 7 feet elsewhere from 30W eastward. The sea
heights range from 13N to 22N between 50W and 60W. The sea
heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet, from 60W westward.

Fresh to strong winds are from 15N southward between 35W and
60W; and from 28N northward within 150 nm to the east of the
46W/47W warm front. Fresh winds are from 27N northward between
40W and 72W.

A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 26N73W, about 190 nm to
the NE of the central Bahamas. Broad surface anticyclonic wind
flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 17N northward from 50W
westward.

High pressure centered E of the Bahamas will remain
nearly-stationary through Sun. The high pressure will weaken and
move east on Sun evening ahead of a strong cold front moving off
the northeast Florida coast Sun night. Fresh to strong southerly
winds are forecast to the N of the Bahamas ahead of the front
Sat night, increasing to near gale force speeds Sun, and to gale
force Sun night N of 30N. Gale force conditions will diminish
Mon morning. Building seas associated with the front
will subside to the east of the Bahamas by mid-week.

$$
mt/era
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