[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311009
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Dec 31 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure centered east of the Bahamas will continue
supporting fresh to strong trade winds across the central
Caribbean Sea through Sun. Winds pulsing to minimal gale force off
Colombia will continue through this morning with seas up to 10
ft.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information on these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of
Liberia near 05N09W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to
03N29W to 02N40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the
equator to 07N between 12W-27W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The gradient between a 1020 mb high pressure in the western
Atlantic and lower pressure over eastern Mexico is supporting
moderate SE to S flow across the majority of the Gulf. Seas are
predominately 3 to 5 ft across the basin. No significant
convection is noted.

For the forecast, surface high pressure will remain nearly
stationary through the weekend supporting moderate to fresh
return flow across the central and western basin, increasing to
fresh to strong tonight as the pressure gradient increases ahead
of a strong cold front forecast to come off the coast of Texas on
Sat night. Strong to near gale force northerly winds will follow
this front, with gale conditions affecting the NW and SW basin on
Sun and Sun night. The front is forecast to move east of the gulf
Mon morning. Winds and seas associated with the front will
gradually subside through Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for details about the
gale warning in effect for the southern Caribbean.

A 1020 mb high pressure centered north of the area is supporting
fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean. Latest
altimeter pass indicated seas in the area are 7 to 9 ft.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh E winds across the
central Caribbean, while moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Seas
in this area range from 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate E to SE
winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted.

For the forecast, high pressure E of the Bahamas is forecast to
remain nearly-stationary through the upcoming weekend, continue to
support moderate to fresh trade winds across the Caribbean,
except for locally strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras, central
Caribbean and portions of the SW basin. Brief gale force winds
will continue off the Colombian coast through this morning. The
tail of a cold front will enter the far NW Caribbean Mon morning
supporting moderate to locally fresh NE winds and building seas in
the Yucatan channel. The front will stall from western Cuba to
Belize by Mon night before dissipating.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details about the
gale warning in effect for the eastern Atlantic.

A 1020 mb high pressure located east of the Bahamas near 26N66W
dominates the weather over the western Atlantic. This is
generating mostly light to gentle anticyclonic flow and 3 to 5 ft
seas west of 65W. Buoys are reporting moderate SW winds off the
northeast Florida coast, along with moderate E winds and 6 ft seas
south of 22N.

In the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N29W to
25N43W to 31N53W. Scattered showers are noted along the front. In
the vicinity of the front, 12-16 ft building seas from N of 26N
between 23W and 50W. Seas of 8 to 12 ft prevail N of 21N between
18W and 61W. To the east of the front, a surface trough extends
from 30N23W to 17N45W. A fresh SW breeze and showers extends 120
nm east of the boundary.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure centered E of the
Bahamas will remain nearly-stationary through the weekend. The
high pressure will weaken and move east on Sun evening ahead of a
strong cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast Sun
night. Fresh to strong southerly winds are forecast to the N of
the Bahamas ahead of the front Sat night, increasing to near gale
force speeds Sun and continuing through Mon morning. Building seas
associated with the front will subside to the east of the Bahamas
by mid-week.

$$
ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net