[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310536
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Dec 31 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0605 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale-Force wind Warning...

Expect gale-force winds, and sea heights that range from 8 feet
to 9 feet, from 11N to 12N between 74W and 76W, off the coast of
Colombia. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that
is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 05N09W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W, to
03N18W, 04N20W, 04N28W, to 01N33W and 02N40W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to
the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 23W eastward.
Scattered moderate to strong is within 90 nm to the north of the
ITCZ between 23W and 26W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through the NW Bahamas, through Florida
along 28N, toward the Texas Gulf coast between the upper part of
the coast and the central Texas Gulf coast.

Moderate breezes or slower span the Gulf of Mexico. The sea
heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the eastern one-third of
the area. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere.

Surface high pressure centered NE of the central Bahamas will
remain nearly stationary through the weekend supporting moderate
to locally fresh return flow across the central and western
basin, increasing to fresh to strong Fri night as the pressure
gradient increases ahead of a strong cold front forecast to come
off the coast of Texas on Sat night. Strong to near gale force
northerly winds will follow this front, with gale conditions
affecting the NW and SW basin on Sun and Sun night. The front is
forecast to move east of the gulf Mon morning. Winds and seas
associated with the front will subside gradually through Mon
night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind warning for the coastal areas of Colombia.

A surface trough, that is marked by a cloud line, is along 16N
between 60W and 76W. Precipitation: isolated moderate
rainshowers are within 60 nm on either side of the surface
trough.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere, from 14N southward
from 63W eastward, and from 80W westward.

The sea heights range from 8 feet to 10 feet within 360 nm to
the north of the coast of Colombia between 70W and 80W. The sea
heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere. Strong winds
cover much of the Caribbean Sea from the Greater Antilles
southward between the Mona Passage and 80W, and within 120 nm to
the north of Honduras from 85W westward. Fresh-to-moderate
breezes cover the rest of the area.

High pressure centered NE of the central Bahamas is forecast to
remain nearly-stationary through the upcoming weekend,
supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the Caribbean
Sea, except for locally strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras, in
the central Caribbean Sea, and in parts of the SW corner of the
basin. Brief gale force winds are expected off Colombia tonight.
The tail of a cold front will enter the far NW Caribbean Mon
morning supporting moderate to locally fresh NE winds and
building seas in the Yucatan channel. The front will stall from
western Cuba to Belize by Mon night
before dissipating.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N33W 26N48W 31N54W. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible from 20N northward between 30W and 60W.

A dissipating stationary front passes through 31N23W to 20N35W.
A surface trough continues from 20N35W to 16N60W. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either side of the
dissipating front and surface trough.

The sea heights range from 11 feet to 17 feet from the line
31N21W 25N36W 31N53W northward.
The sea heights range from 8 feet to 11 feet, elsewhere from the
line 31N14W 02N41W 10N60W 31N60W northward. The sea heights
range from 2 feet to 4 feet from 20N northward from 60W westward.

Strong winds are from 09N southward between 40W and 50W. Strong
winds, or faster and reaching near gale-force, are from 25N
northward between 20W and 41W. Fresh winds are from 21N
southward between 53W and 65W, and elsewhere from 13N southward
between 37W and 53W.

A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 27N66W, about 550 nm to
the ENE of the central Bahamas.
Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from the surface trough northward, from 60W westward and away
from the cold front.

High pressure centered NE of the central Bahamas will remain
nearly-stationary through the weekend. The high pressure will
weaken and move east on Sun evening, ahead of a strong cold
front moving off the northeast Florida coast Sun night. Fresh to
strong southerly winds are forecast to the N of
the Bahamas ahead of the front Sat night, increasing to near
gale-force speeds Sun and continuing through Mon morning.
Building seas associated with the front will subside to the east
of the Bahamas by mid-week.

$$
mt/era
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