[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261715
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Dec 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

.Atlantic Gale Warning...
A 995 mb low pressure currently near 39N63W will move
southeastward while gradually intensifying over the next 24 to 48
hours. In the process, it will bring a strong cold front south of
30N and east of 70W tonight. The front will reach from 31N35W to
near the Leeward Islands by late Tue. Winds reaching gale force
will follow the front over the waters north of 29N between 35W and
55W from Mon morning to Tue morning. In addition, very rough to
high seas will accompany the front mainly east of Bermuda, with
seas expected to peak between 20 and 22 ft Mon night and early
Tue. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of southern Liberia to
05N12W. The ITCZ extends continues from 05N12W through 05N25W to
03N47W. Scattered moderate convection with embedded thunderstorms
is evident along the western half of the ITCZ from the equator to
05N between 30W and 48W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends westward from 1021 mb high pressure over
Florida to the western Gulf. This pattern is supporting moderate
to fresh southerly winds and 3 to 5 ft seas over the northwestern
Gulf. Light to gentle breezes and slight seas dominate the
eastern Gulf. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is
evident.

For the forecast, the ridge extending will shift east through
late Tue. Return flow will then prevail through Thu night. This
pattern will support moderate to fresh south to southeast winds
across the basin through Wed evening.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the area dominates the pattern over the
Caribbean Sea generating a moderate to fresh easterly breeze
throughout the basin. A recent scatterometer pass revealed fresh
northeast winds through the Windward Passage and a small area of
near gale force winds off the coast of Colombia. Seas in the basin
are generally 3 to 5 ft with 6 to 8 ft possible near the coast of
Colombia and Panama in the southern Caribbean. A few showers are
possible in scattered weak convection in the northwestern and
southwestern Caribbean along a series of surface troughs.

For the forecast, locally strong winds along the coast of
Colombia and Panama are expected at night south of Hispaniola and
in the Windward passage. These conditions will continue through
Thu night, however with strong winds developing in the Gulf of
Honduras and the central Caribbean Tue night through Thu as the
high pressure north of the area strengthen.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section on a Gale Warning issued
for the central Atlantic. High pressure near central Florida
dominates the western Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N30W
to 26N40W where a stationary boundary continues to 25N46W. In the
western tropical Atlantic, winds are generally increasing with
latitude from a gentle to moderate northeasterly breeze and 3-5 ft
seas near the Greater Antilles to a fresh westerly breeze with
8-10 ft seas north of 29N. East of 65W, a strong westerly breeze
and greater fetch area are causing higher seas to propagate
farther south with altimeter data confirming seas are greater than
10 ft north of 30N while 8 ft seas reach as far south as 25N in
the central Atlantic. A fresh breeze is noted along the eastern
Atlantic cold front. Moderate trade winds are noted south of 20N.
Gentle winds dominate the remainder of the basin from 20N to 27N
with moderate northerly swell.

For the forecast, high pressure will weaken and shift west ahead
of a cold front moving into the waters between northeast Florida
and Bermuda tonight. The front will continue to move southeast of
the region through Wed. The high pressure will shift eastward
following the front, and strengthen northeast of the Bahamas Tue
through Thu.

$$
FLYNN
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