[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260929
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Dec 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

.Atlantic Gale Warning...
A 997 mb low pressure currently east of Cape Cod Bay will move
southeastward while gradually intensifying over the next 24 to 48
hours. In the process, it will bring a strong cold front south of
30N and east of 70W tonight. The front will reach from 31N35W to
near the Leeward Islands by late Tue. Winds reaching gale force
will follow the front over the waters north of 29N between 35W and
55W from Mon morning to Tue morning. In addition very large swell
will accompany the front mainly east of Bermuda, with seas expected
to peak between 20 and 22 ft Mon night and early Tue. Please read
the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly inland across western Africa.
An ITCZ extends from off the Sierra Leone-Liberia coast at 06N12W
through 06N20W to 01N35W to 02N47W. Scattered moderate convection
is evident from 01N to 03N between 33W and 42W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends westward from 1020 mb high pressure over
the northern Bahamas to the coast of Texas. This pattern is
supporting moderate southerly winds and 3 to 5 ft seas over the
western Gulf, and light to gentle breezes and slight seas over the
eastern Gulf. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is
evident.

For the forecast, winds and seas will build slightly over the
western Gulf through Tue, into mid week. The ridge will shift
eastward Wed, allowing winds and seas to diminish across the
basin through Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure centered north of the area dominates the pattern
over the Caribbean Sea. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
confirmed fresh to strong winds pusling off the coast of Colombia
and Gulf of Venezuela, along with fresh NE wind into the northern
part of the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate trade winds with
3 to 5 ft seas are evident elsewhere. A few showers and
thunderstorms are evident off the coast of eastern Honduras and
northeast Nicaragua along a trough.

For the forecast, little change is expected. The high pressure
north of the area will continue to support moderate to fresh
winds across the Caribbean through Thu, with strong winds pulsing
off Colombia.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section on a Gale Warning issued
for the central Atlantic.

1020 mb high pressure is centered near the northern Bahamas, just
east of Abaco Island. A cold front is analyzed from 31N33W to
24N50W. A recent scatterometer pass indicated fresh E winds north
of 29N, between the high pressure and lower pressure farther
north. Seas are likely 5 to 8 ft north of 29N west of 60W, and 8
to 12 ft in NW swell north of 27N west of the front to 60W. A
recent altimeter pass identified an area of seas approaching 8 ft
near 24N62W, in residual N swell. Moderate winds and seas are
noted elsewhere west of the front. Farther east, fresh to strong
SW winds are evident within 300 nm east of the front, with 8 to
10 ft seas. Elsewhere, light gentle breezes are noted north of
18N under the influence of the subtropical ridge, with moderate
trade winds farther south. 8 to 9 ft seas in N swell are noted
east of line from roughly the Canary Islands to 07N50W and 5 to 8
ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure over the northern Bahamas will
weaken and shift west over Florida ahead of the cold front moving
into the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight.
The front will continue to move southeast of the region through
Wed. The high pressure will shift eastward following the front,
and strengthen northeast of the Bahamas through Thu.


$$
Christensen
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