[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032118
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Dec 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African
continent, entering the Atlantic Ocean through the coastal border
of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 11N15W to 11N16W. The ITCZ
continues from 11N16W to 02N34W to 04N41W, then resumes west of
a surface trough near 05N44W to near 05N52W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 12N between
20W and 44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high is centered near 28N88W, with a surface ridge
extending across the northern Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough
extends from 23N92W to the Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle
winds prevail across most the of the basin. Seas are generally 3
ft or less.

For the forecast, the high pressure across the northern Gulf
will shift slowly ESE across the basin through Sun, supporting
tranquil conditions for the next few days. A weak cold front is
expected to briefly enter the NW Gulf late Mon then lift
northward out of the basin Tue. The next front is expected to
enter the NW Gulf late Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail across the south central Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft
range over the south central Caribbean and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure northwest of the area will
maintain moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the Caribbean
into next week, with fresh winds pulsing to strong at night off
Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela, as well as south of
Hispaniola. NE winds will also pulse to strong each night through
the Windward Passage through Sat night. Moderate NE to E swell
over the tropical N Atlantic is expected to continue for the next
several days. Active weather will continue across the far
western Caribbean through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1010 mb low in the western Atlantic is analyzed near 31N60W
with an attendant surface trough extending to 25N63W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection and fresh to strong S to SE
winds are noted within 240 nm east of the trough. Moderate winds
are within 180 nm west of the trough. A tight pressure gradient
south of the Azores high is supporting fresh to strong winds
north of 13N and east of 35W. Seas over this area are in the 8-11
ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, are
elsewhere north of 20N and east of 55W. Elsewhere north of 20N
and west of 55W, light to gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft
prevail. South of 20N, moderate to fresh winds and seas of 7-9 ft
prevail.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure across the northern
Gulf of Mexico and eastern U.S. will slowly build south and east
into the area through early next week, supporting generally
tranquil conditions over the SW N Atlantic for the next several
days. Moderate NE to E swell over the Atlantic waters E of 70W is
expected for the next several days. Fresh southerly winds are
expected across the N Florida waters Wed.

$$
AL
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