[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031647
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Dec 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1645 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African
continent, entering the Atlantic Ocean through the coastal border
of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 11N15W to 09N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 09N17W to 02N33W to 05N41W, then resumes west of a
surface trough near 05N43W to the coast of French Guiana near
05N52W. The surface trough extends from 11N41W to 02N43W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
02N to 12N between 19W and 47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high is centered south of the Louisiana coastline near
29N90W, with a surface ridge extending across the northern Gulf of
Mexico. A surface trough extends into the central Gulf from
18N93W to 23N92W. Light to gentle anticyclonic flow prevails
across most the of the basin, with the exception of moderate NE to
E flow in the south-central Gulf between 25N and the west-
northwest Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are generally 3 ft or less.
Outside of some cloudiness with embedded showers across the
northwestern Gulf observed on satellite imagery, dry conditions
prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, the high pressure across the northern Gulf will
shift slowly ESE across the basin through Sun, supporting
tranquil conditions for the next few days. A weak cold front
should enter the NW Gulf on Mon and quickly move across the
northern waters on Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection west of 78W and south of 17N is
associated with a surface trough that is analyzed across the
western Caribbean near the Panama Canal from 17N85W to 11N81W.
Seas of 5 to 8 ft extend across the south and central Caribbean,
with a recent altimeter pass capturing up to 10 ft in the
southwest Caribbean where a tight pressure gradient is producing
strong winds offshore of northern Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela. Elsewhere, surface ridging to the north supports
moderate to fresh and occasionally strong NE to E winds across the
remainder of the basin and 3 to 6 ft, except 2 to 4 ft in the far
NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, weak high pressure northwest of the area will
maintain only moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the Caribbean
into next week, with fresh winds pulsing to strong at night off
Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela, as well as south of
Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh NE winds will also be possible over
the Windward Passage Fri night through Sat night. Moderate NE to E
swell over the tropical N Atlantic is expected to continue for
the next several days. Active weather will continue across the far
western Caribbean through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1013 mb low in the western Atlantic is analyzed near 30N62W
with an attendant surface trough extending to 23N66W. Scattered
moderate convection and fresh to strong S to SE winds are noted
east of the trough west of 55W and north of 25N. The remainder of
the basin is under the influence of the Azores high, which is
providing fresh to strong trades from 07N to 27N between 35W and
55W. Similar winds are between Africa and 35W north of 15N, where
the pressure gradient is tight between the Azores high and lower
pressure near the western coast of Africa. Elsewhere, mainly
gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are 7 to 11 ft in NE to E
fresh swell south of 30N east of 60W. Seas are 3 to 6 ft west of
60W to the Bahamas.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, weak high pressure across the
northern Gulf of Mexico and eastern U.S. will slowly build south
and east into the area through early next week, supporting
tranquil conditions over the SW N Atlantic for the next several
days. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may emerge off of the
Florida coast early Tue. Moderate NE to E swell over the Atlantic
waters E of 70W is expected for the next several days.

$$
Nepaul
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