[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Aug 31 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Ida is centered near 33.3N 89.5W at 31/0300
UTC or 70 nm NNE of Jackson, Mississippi and moving NE at 9 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Convergent gentle to
moderate S to SW winds feeding toward Ida are causing scattered
showers and thunderstorms over the NE Gulf, including SW Alabama
and the Florida Panhandle. Seas are ranging from 6 to 9 ft across
the NE Gulf. Ida is forecast to remain a tropical depression
through Tue evening, then becoming extratropical on Wed. Please
read the latest WPC Public Advisory at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/tropical_advisories.php?storm=IDA
and Storm Summary Message at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html for more
details.

Tropical Storm Kate is centered near 22.7N 50.9W at 31/0300 UTC
or 700 nm ENE of the Leeward Islands moving N at 5 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are 11 to 13 ft. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring mainly NE, E and SE of the center
from 19N to 25N between 46W and 51W due to strong wind shear aloft.
A slow northward motion is expected through Tue evening, then
turning toward the NNW on Wed. Kate is forecast to weaken to a
tropical depression on Tue, then strengthen back to a tropical
storm Wed with little change in intensity through the end of the
week. Kate is forecast to dissipate during this weekend. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

Satellite-derived wind data and satellite imagery indicate that an
1007 mb area of low pressure is persisting over the far eastern
Tropical Atlantic near 08.5N16.3W in close proximity with a
tropical wave that recently moved off the west coast of Africa.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is flaring up just N of
the low, near the tropical wave from 09N to 13N between 17W and
20W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
near the low from 05N to 09N between 15W and 19W. Environmental
conditions are conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of
days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. There is
a high chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours.
Refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at:
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 17W from 19N southward, just
off the Senegal-Gambia coast, and moving W at 5 to 10 kt.
Associated convection is described in the Special Features section
above.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 36W from 20N southward and
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen
from 06N to 11N between 30W and 36W.

A weak Atlantic tropical wave is along 47W from 17N southward and
moving slowly W near 5 kt. No significant convection is associated
with this wave.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 64W, over the Virgin Islands
from 20N southward into NE Venezuela, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are found over NE Venezuela.

Another Caribbean tropical wave is along 87W, near the E coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula from 19N southward across Honduras and
Nicaragua into the E Pacific Ocean, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt.
Enhanced by the eastern end of the Pacific monsoon trough,
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present over S
Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough exits the coast of Africa near the border of
Guinea-Bissau and Guinea at 11N15W through a low pressure system
at 08N16W to 13N30W to 11N41W. Scattered moderate convection is
evident near and S of the monsoon trough from 06N to 11N between
20W and 26W. Latest analysis reveals no ITCZ in the Atlantic
Basin.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for information on
convection related to Tropical Depression Ida and sea states
across the NE Gulf.

A surface ridge extends west-southwestward from N Florida across
the central Gulf to central Mexico. Light to gentle SE to S winds
and seas at 3 to 4 ft dominate much of Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong S to SW winds associated with
the circulation of Ida will continue to affect the NE Gulf of
Mexico through Wed night. Otherwise, a ridge will dominate the
Gulf region producing mainly southerly winds through Fri. Pulsing
fresh winds are expected NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night
through Wed night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern end of the Pacific monsoon trough extends eastward
from a low pressure system near the Costa Rica-Panama border at
09N82W to E Panama at 09N79W. Trade winds converging into these
features are causing scattered to numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms over the SW and S central Caribbean Basin. Moderate
to locally fresh trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft are existed over the
SW basin. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail
for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure-gradient between a ridge east of
Florida and lower pressure over northern Colombia will support
fresh to locally strong NE to E winds over the south-central
Caribbean. Similar wind speeds are expected in the Gulf of
Honduras at night. Elsewhere moderate trades or weaker will
prevail. The passage of a tropical wave will bring some increase
in winds and seas first in the SW Caribbean, then in the NW
Caribbean Wed through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on Tropical
Storm Kate. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
sections for additional convection across the Atlantic Basin.

Convergent winds S of a weak cold front near 30N50W are
triggering scattered moderate convection N of 26N between 40W and
54W. An upper-level trough near 27N33W is producing scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms from 24N to 28N between 30W and
36W. A modest surface ridge curves westward from a weak 1018 mb
high centered at 29N28W to another high off the Georgia-Florida
coast near 31N78W. These features are supporting light to gentle
winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft from 10N to 27N between 24W and
Georgia- Florida coast/Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate winds
and seas of 5 to 7 ft related to the cold front are evident N of
27N between 36W and 66W. Moderate to fresh trades and seas at 4 to
6 ft are present near the Canary Islands N of 17N between the NW
African coast and 24W. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh
monsoonal SSW to W winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are occurring from
the Equator to 10N between the African coast and 38W. Light to
gentle E to SE trades and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will
prevail through Wed, which will result in light to gentle winds.
Fresh to strong SW winds will develop over NE Florida offshore
waters by Wed ahead of a cold front forecast to clip the NW
waters late Thu into Fri.

$$

Chan
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