[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302148
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Aug 31 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1920 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Ida is centered near 32.6N 90.3W at 30/2100
UTC or 20 nm NNW of Jackson, Mississippi moving NNE at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas near the
southeast coast of Louisiana and south of Alabama and the extreme
western Florida Peninsula at 8 to 11 ft. Over the Gulf, scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted north of 25N between 83W
and 92W. Ida is forecast to remain a tropical depression through
Wed night, becoming extratropical Thu morning.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for
more details.

Tropical Storm Kate is centered near 22.7N 50.9W at 30/2100 UTC
or 700 nm ENE of the Leeward Islands moving N at 9 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are 13 to 14 ft.
Kate is a sheared tropical cyclone with scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection noted from 23N to 26N between 46W and
49W, and from 20N to 22N between 47W and 50W. Kate is forecast to
weaken to a tropical depression Tue morning, then strengthen back
to a tropical storm Wed morning, and change little in intensity
through the end of the week. Kate is forecast to dissipate by Sat
afternoon.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

Satellite-derived wind data and satellite imagery indicate that an
1007 mb area of low pressure has formed over the far eastern
Tropical Atlantic near 08.5N15.5W in association with a tropical
wave that recently moved off the west coast of Africa. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 14W
and 20W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 08N to 12N between 13W and 17W. Environmental
conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while
the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt over the
eastern tropical Atlantic. There is a high chance of tropical
formation within the next 48 hours.
Refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at:
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 16W from 19N
southward from West Africa into the tropical N Atlantic, moving W
at 10 kt. Associated convection is described in the section above.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 33W from 20N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 27W and 36W.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 46W from 17N
southward, moving slowly W at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 15N to 23N between 41W and 49W.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean Sea along 63W near
the Anegada Passage from 20N southward to across eastern
Venezuela, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted
in association with this tropical wave over water, however
thunderstorms are occurring over portions of northern Venezuela
and near the A-B-C Islands.

A tropical wave is in the Caribbean Sea along 86W near the Gulf of
Honduras from 19N southward across central Venezuela and
Nicaragua, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Enhanced by the eastern end
of the Pacific monsoon trough, scattered to numerous moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between
73W and 86W, and from 15N to 18N between 84W and 86W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough exits the coast of Africa near the border of
Senegal and Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 11N21W to 14N31W to
11N42W. In addition to the convection noted in association with
the Atlantic Ocean tropical waves, scattered moderate convection
is noted from 06N to 12N between 22W and 26W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for information on
Tropical Depression Ida.

Outside of the effects of Ida, winds are moderate or weaker
across the Gulf primarily out of the south. Seas are 3 to 6 ft
over most of the Gulf, mainly due to swell from Ida.

For the forecast, Ida will continue moving northward while
weakening. Fresh to strong winds associated with Ida will continue
to affect the north-central gulf early this evening and gradually
diminish tonight. Moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the
basin afterwards continuing through Wed. Winds will further
diminish to gentle to locally moderate by mid-week. Light to
moderate easterly winds return during the weekend with the
exception of moderate to fresh winds pulsing NW of the Yucatan
Peninsula.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on
convection.

The pressure-gradient between ridging east of Florida and lower
pressure over northern Colombia is contributing toward fresh to
locally strong NE to E winds over the south-central Caribbean.
Elsewhere the trades are moderate or weaker. Seas peak at 6 to 8
ft just north of Colombia, and are 3 to 6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds are
expected through Tue, except for locally strong winds in the
south-central Caribbean through this evening. A tropical wave
will enhance winds in the SW Caribbean including the Gulf of
Honduras Wed into Thu. Moderate to locally fresh winds will
dominate the basin through the remainder of the forecast period,
except this weekend as fresh to locally strong winds return across
the south central Caribbean including the Gulf of Venezuela.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the sections above for details on Tropical Storm Kate and
the tropical waves moving across the basin.

A weak cold front extends from 31N46W to 27N56W to 31N70W. SW
winds ahead of the front are fresh to strong north of 29N between
35W and 47W. A prefrontal trough is north of 29N within 90 nm
ahead of the front. Scattered moderate convection is noted north
of 29N between 38W and 51W in association with these features. A
weak 1018 mb high is centered at 29N25W and the trades, except in
the vicinity of Tropical Storm Kate, are moderate or weaker
across the basin. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the basin outside of
Kate, except 3 to 5 ft west of 65W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will
prevail through Wed, which will result in light to gentle variable
winds. Moderate to fresh SW winds will develop over NE Florida
offshore waters by Wed night ahead of a cold front moving E just N
of the area. Moderate to fresh SW winds will cover the offshore
waters N of the Bahamas through Thu.

$$
Lewitsky
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