[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Tropical Depression Fred Local Statement Advisory Number 15
National Weather Service Miami FL  AL062021
506 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

This product covers South Florida

...FRED REMAINS A DEPRESSION WITH STRENGTHENING EXPECTED TODAY...

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Coastal Collier, Far
      South Miami-Dade, and Mainland Monroe

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 340 miles southeast of Miami FL or about 430 miles
      southeast of Naples FL
    - 22.0N 76.7W
    - Storm Intensity 35 mph
    - Movement West-northwest or 300 degrees at 10 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Depression Fred, although disorganized this morning, is
expected to strengthen into a Tropical Storm later today. Confidence
is relatively high in the general track and intensity forecast as
Fred moves through the Straits and across the Keys this weekend.

* The main threat from Fred to the local area will be the potential
for localized flooding from excessive rainfall. A Flood Watch is in
effect from tonight through Sunday night.

* Sustained tropical storm force winds are most likely over our Gulf
waters and the immediate southwest coast. Elsewhere, tropical storm
force winds will be most likely in occasional gusts.

* A few tornadoes will be possible as Fred moves through the eastern
Gulf.

* Poor marine and beach conditions are also expected, with a heightened
risk for rip currents and elevated surf along the Atlantic coast
(especially on Saturday).

* The main window for the above impacts will be from late tonight
through Saturday night.


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across the majority of South Florida. Potential impacts
include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Ditches and canals may quickly become swollen with swift
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across the interior Lake region.

* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
all of South Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
all of South Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, mobile
      homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and
      branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving
      vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions, including
possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Miami FL around 11 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.

$$
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