[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTUS82 KKEY 130316
HLSKEY
FLZ076>078-131030-

Tropical Depression Fred Local Statement Advisory Number 14
National Weather Service Key West FL  AL062021
1116 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

This product covers the Florida Keys

**Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for all of the Florida Keys**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Monroe Lower Keys,
      Monroe Middle Keys, and Monroe Upper Keys

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 410 miles east-southeast of Marathon FL
    - 21.5N 75.6W
    - Storm Intensity 35 mph
    - Movement West-northwest or 295 degrees at 9 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 1100 PM EDT, reconnaissance aircraft data indicate that Tropical
Depression Fred has changed little during the evening, with maximum
sustained winds of 35 mph or just below tropical storm strength, while
the west-northwest forward motion has slowed slightly to near 9 mph.
On the forecast track, the center of Fred will move along or just
north of eastern and central Cuba overnight and Friday, through the
eastern Straits of Florida Friday night, then be near the Florida Keys
and South Florida on Saturday. Fred is expected to slowly intensify
back to tropical storm strength before nearing the Florida Keys.
Weather conditions will begin to deteriorate with squalls becoming more
frequent across the Florida Keys Friday night, with squally weather
continuing on Saturday as Fred moves through the area.

The risk for multiple hazards remains essentially unchanged for the
Florida Keys, including potentially flooding rainfall, tropical storm
force winds especially in squalls, isolated tornadoes, and very
hazardous marine conditions. Tropical storm conditions are most likely
to arrive early Saturday morning, with conditions not likely to
improve until late Saturday afternoon or Saturday evening.

Heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
8 inches, may cause significant rainwater flooding. Heavy rains may
linger into Saturday night, even after the strong winds associated with
the circulation of Fred have moved out of our area. Flooding from
heavy rainfall will be aggravated during the times of high tide in the
predawn hours early Saturday and Sunday morning.

A few tornadoes will be possible late Friday night and Saturday.

At this time, there is little if any potential for significant coastal
flooding due to storm surge. However, significant wave overwash along
south-facing shorelines will be possible, especially near the times of
high tide early Saturday and Sunday mornings.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across the
Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

* SURGE:
Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time across the Florida
Keys.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
No mandatory evacuations are expected for this storm. However, Monroe
County Emergency Management advises residents and visitors in
campgrounds, recreational vehicles, travel trailers, live-aboard
vessels, and mobile homes to prepare to seek shelter with friends or
family in a safe structure through the expected duration of Fred's
passage through the Florida Keys.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
- For Florida Division of Emergency Management information, see
floridadisaster.org
- For Monroe County Emergency Management Information, see
monroecountyem.com/782/Emergency-Management
- For Monroe County EM Hurricane Preparedness Information, see
  monroecountyem.com/1214/Hurricane-Preparedness

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Key West FL around 6 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

Jacobson
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