[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTUS82 KKEY 122126
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Tropical Depression Fred Local Statement Advisory Number 13
National Weather Service Key West FL  AL062021
526 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

This product covers the Florida Keys

**Tropical Storm Watch in effect for all Florida Keys**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Monroe Lower Keys,
      Monroe Middle Keys, and Monroe Upper Keys

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Monroe Lower Keys,
      Monroe Middle Keys, and Monroe Upper Keys

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 470 miles east-southeast of Key West FL or about 430
      miles east-southeast of Marathon FL or about 420 miles
      southeast of Key Largo FL
    - 21.3N 75.3W
    - Storm Intensity 35 mph
    - Movement West-northwest or 295 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 500 PM EDT, Tropical Depression Fred has changed very little in
strength over the past six hours, but has slowed its west-northwest
forward motion to 12 mph.  On the forecast track, the center of
Tropical Depression Fred will move along or just north of eastern
and central Cuba tonight and Friday, and be near the Florida Keys
and southern Florida on Saturday. Fred is expected to slowly
intensify back to tropical storm strength before nearing the Florida
Keys.  Weather conditions will begin to deteriorate gradually with
squalls becoming more frequent across the Florida Keys Friday night
and early Saturday morning.

There is a risk for multiple hazards remains essentially unchanged
for the Florida Keys, including potentially flooding rainfall,
tropical storm force winds especially in squalls, isolated
tornadoes, and treacherous marine conditions. Tropical storm
conditions are most likely to arrive early Saturday morning during
the pre-dawn hours, with conditions not likely to improve until
later Sunday.

Heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches, may cause significant rainwater flooding. Heavy rainfall
will be exacerbated early Saturday and Sunday mornings during the
times of high tide.

At this time, there is little if any potential for coastal flooding.
However, significant wave overwash along south-facing shorelines will
be possible, especially near the times of high tide early Saturday and
Sunday mornings.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across the
Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

* SURGE:
Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time across the Florida
Keys.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
No mandatory evacuations are expected for this storm. However, Monroe
County Emergency Management advises residents and visitors in
campgrounds, recreational vehicles, travel trailers, live-aboard
vessels, and mobile homes to prepare to seek shelter with friends or
family in a safe structure through the expected duration of Fred's
passage through the Florida Keys.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news outlets
for official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the
forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
- For Florida Division of Emergency Management information, see
floridadisaster.org
- For Monroe County Emergency Management Information, see
monroecountyem.com/782/Emergency-Management
- For Monroe County EM Hurricane Preparedness Information, see
monroecountyem.com/1214/Hurricane-Preparedness
- For Monroe County EM Evacuation Information, see
monroecountyem.com/897/Evacuation-information
- For Monroe County shelter information, see
monroecountyem.com/992/Shelters

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Key West FL around 11 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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