[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122125
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Aug 13 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Fred is centered near 21.3N 75.3W at 12/2100
UTC or 410 nm ESE of Key West Florida moving WNW at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently
9 ft. Convection is currently displaced from the center with
scattered moderate noted in a band between 90 nm and 420 nm in the
northeast quadrant, between 60 nm and 120 nm in the northwest
quadrant, and between 120 nm and 210 nm in the south semicircle.
Additional scattered moderate convection is noted from 22N to 26N
between 65W and 70W, with isolated to scattered moderate
convection from 26N to 29N between 71W and 79W. Fred is forecast
to strengthen to a tropical storm near 24.0N 80.6W Sat morning,
move to the Gulf of Mexico near 25.2N 81.9W Sat afternoon, move to
26.4N 83.1W Sun morning, and then to 28.1N 84.1W Sun afternoon.
Fred will move inland to 31.0N 85.5W Mon afternoon.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details.

Satellite-derived wind data from this morning indicated that a
small area of low pressure has developed near 14N43W along a
tropical wave about 1200 nm east of the Lesser Antilles. However,
the low does not quite have a closed circulation, and the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
08N to 16N between 43W and 49W. Current winds are 20 to 30 kt.
Peak seas are 8 ft. Environmental conditions are expected to
become more conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the weekend while moving generally
westward at about 20 kt across the tropical Atlantic. This system
has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48
hours, and a high chance through the next 5 days. This system is
expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands late Sat or
early Sun, and interests there should monitor its progress.
Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on a tropical
wave in the Atlantic Ocean along 43W.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean just offshore of the
coast of Africa along 18W south of 20N, moving W at around 15 kt.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
05N to 09N between 13W and 19W.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean from 23N55W to
Suriname/Guyana border at 04N58W, moving W at 15 to 20 kt.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
09N to 14N between 58W and 62W.

A tropical wave is in the Caribbean Seas along 78W south of 16N,
moving W at around 15 kt. Only isolated moderate convection is
noted near the tropical wave.

A tropical wave is in the Gulf of Mexico along 93W south of 23N,
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 22N to 26N between 90W and 94W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near the
border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau from 11N15W to 06N26W to
11N42W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 08N to 11N between 28W and 33W, and from 04N to 10N
between 50W and 55W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Depression Fred.

An upper level trough is supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the northern Gulf of Mexico, mainly between
84W and 94W. A surface trough is located in the SW Gulf and
western Bay of Campeche from near Tampico, Mexico to 18N93W.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted near the trough axis.
The rest of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions.
Mainly gentle easterly winds prevail across the basin, locally
moderate through the Straits of Florida. Seas are mainly 3 ft or
less, locally higher near any convection.

For the forecast, Fred is expected to move across the eastern
Straits of Florida and the far eastern Gulf of Mexico as a
tropical storm by Fri night, and move northward along the far
eastern Gulf into early next week. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh E
winds will pulse off the northwest Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay
of Campeche tonight in association with a trough that forms late
in the day. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas
will persist through the period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Depression Fred.

Aside from the convection affecting Hispaniola, Jamaica and the
surrounding waters due to Tropical Depression Fred, fairly
tranquil weather conditions prevail across the Caribbean Sea,
except for isolated showers and thunderstorms in the SW Caribbean
Sea south of 11N. Moderate to fresh trades are found east of 76W
with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across
the rest of the basin, along with seas of 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, Fred will continue moving away from the
Caribbean and have no impact on the basin. Fresh to locally strong
winds will persist across most the eastern and central Caribbean
through Fri, becoming light to gentle during the weekend. Light to
gentle breezes and slight seas will persist elsewhere. Looking
ahead, a fairly strong tropical wave will move into the Windward
Islands by Sat night, and into the north central Caribbean by Mon.
Gusty winds with showers can be expected.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Depression Fred and an area of low pressure in the central
Atlantic near 14N43W.

A surface trough in the SW N Atlantic extends from 31N71W to
22N75W. Nearby convection is described in the Special Features
section. High pressure dominates elsewhere across the Atlantic
waters with fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to fresh
easterlies and seas of 4 to 7 ft are present S of 24N, while
mainly gentle to moderate easterlies and seas of 3 to 6 ft seas
prevail in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast west of 65W, Fred will move to 22.0N 77.0W Fri
morning, 23.0N 79.0W Fri afternoon, and will strengthen to a
tropical storm near 24.0N 80.6W Sat morning. Fred will cross the
eastern Straits of Florida and into the far southeast Gulf of
Mexico by Fri night. Looking ahead, a fairly strong tropical wave
will move into the Windward Islands by Sat night, and into the
north central Caribbean by Mon. Gusty winds with showers can be
expected.

$$
Lewitsky
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net