[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121752
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Aug 12 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1735 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Fred is positioned north of E Cuba near 21.0N
74.9W at 12/1800 UTC or 105 nm W of Great Inagua Island, moving
WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas
are reaching as high as 7 ft off the north coast of Cuba and the
eastern and central Bahamas. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
thunderstorms are active over the eastern semicircle of Fred,
affecting the central and eastern Bahamas and Hispaniola,
extending to the northern Caribbean. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details.

A strong tropical wave over the central Atlantic is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the west of the
center. A recent scatterometer satellite pass depict a small area
of low pressure along the northern part of the wave and strong to
near gale-force winds near the center. Environmental conditions
are expected to become more conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the weekend while
moving generally westward at about 20 mph across the tropical
Atlantic. This system is expected to reach portions of the Leeward
Islands late Saturday or early Sunday, and interests there should
monitor its progress.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 56W, south of 20N
and it is moving W at 15-20 kt. Recent scatterometer satellite
data and visible imagery show a broad surface curvature
associated with this wave. Fresh to locally strong NE winds is
noted from 17N to 22N and between 51W and 57W. Scattered showers
are noted where the wave interacts with the ITCZ from 08N to 10N
between 54W and 56W.

A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 76W, south of 16N and
it is moving W at around 15 kt. No significant showers or
thunderstorms are noted with this tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N15W
to 07N20W to 10N38W to 10N46W. The ITCZ continues from 10N47W to
09N55W and then from 09N57W to the mouth of the Orinoco River in
NE Venezuela near 09N61W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 200 nm of the coast of Africa from 04N to 10N and north of
the monsoon trough between 27W and 31W. Scattered moderate
convection is also found south of the ITCZ to the NE coast of
South America, W of 43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
north of the ITCZ, between 57W and the Windward Islands.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is supporting scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorm across the northern Gulf of Mexico, mainly
between 84W and 93W. A surface trough is located in the central
Bay of Campeche along 94W and south of 22N. Scattered moderate
convection is noted near the trough axis. The rest of the basin
enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. South of 25N, gentle to
moderate E-SE breezes and 2-4 ft seas prevail in the basin, while
light to gentle E-SE breezes and 1-3 ft seas are prevalent
elsewhere.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Fred is near 20.9N 74.4W
1013 mb at 11 AM EDT moving WNW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds
30 kt gusts 40 kt. Fred is expected to move across the eastern
Straits of Florida as a tropical storm by Fri night, enter the far
southeast Gulf of Mexico on Sat, and move northward along the far
eastern Gulf into early next week. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh E
winds will pulse off the northwest Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay
of Campeche tonight and Fri night in association with a trough
that forms late in the day. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds
and slight seas will persist through the period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Aside from the convection affecting Hispaniola and surrounding
waters due to Tropical Depression Fred, fairly tranquil weather
conditions prevail across the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh
trades are found E of 75W with seas of 5-7 ft. Gentle to moderate
trades prevail in the rest of the basin. Seas are 3-5 ft in the SW
Caribbean and 1-3 ft in the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Fred is near 20.9N 74.4W 1013 mb
at 11 AM EDT moving WNW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt
gusts 40 kt. Fred is expected to remain north of the Caribbean,
and will not have in major impact on the basin. Moderate to
occasionally fresh winds will persist across most the eastern and
central Caribbean as Fred continues to move away from the area and
high pressure builds to the north. Light to gentle breezes and
slight seas will persist elsewhere. Looking ahead, a fairly strong
tropical wave will move into the Windward Islands by Sat night,
and into the north central Caribbean by Mon. Breezy winds with
showers can be expected.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough in the W Atlantic extends from 31N69W to the
eastern Bahamas near 23N74W. The trough and tropical moisture
being propelled northward by the circulation of Fred are
interacting with an upper level low near 29N64W and another one
near Florida, resulting in scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection from 23N to 29N and between 65W to 79W. Another surface
trough extends from 27N45W to 20N48W and it not producing any
significant convection. Outside of the deep tropics, the rest of
the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to
fresh easterlies and 6-8 ft seas are present S of 25N, while
gentle to moderate easterlies are 3-6 ft seas prevail in the rest
of the basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Fred is near 20.9N 74.4W 1013 mb
at 11 AM EDT moving WNW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt
gusts 40 kt. Fred will move to 21.8N 76.2W this evening, 22.8N
78.3W Fri morning, then strengthen to a tropical storm near 23.8N
79.9W Fri evening. Fred will cross the eastern Straits of Florida
and into the far southeast Gulf of Mexico by Fri night. Elsewhere,
mostly moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas will persist
between Fred and the Bermuda-Azores high farther to the northeast
in the north central Atlantic.

$$
DELGADO
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