[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080843
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Aug 8 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 26W from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. A 1012 mb low pressure is centered
where the tropical wave intersects the monsoon trough. Scattered
moderate convection is from 11N to 18N between 23W and 30W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 46W from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 46W and 50W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 64W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 15N to 20N between 61W and 64W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of western
Mauritania near 21N17W to 1012 mb low pressure center that is
near 14N26W to 13N31W to 1011 mb low pressure center near 14N42W
to 1012 mb low pressure center near 12N52W to 02N55W. Aside from
convection noted in the tropical waves section above, scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N
between 30W and 40W, from 10N to 15N between 42W and 46W, and from
07N to 13N between 50W and 56W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Light to gentle
winds prevail over the NE Gulf, gentle to moderate winds prevail
over the NW Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds prevail over the
southern Gulf. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range west of 93W, and west
of the Yucatan peninsula. Seas of 1-3 ft prevail elsewhere.

Moderate to fresh E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula
into the Bay of Campeche every night through Tue night in
association with a diurnal trough. Elsewhere, a weak surface ridge
along 26N-27N will dominate the Gulf waters over the next several
days producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure prevails north of the area. Fresh to locally strong
winds are over the south central Caribbean with moderate to fresh
winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the south
central Caribbean, 3-5 ft over the north central Caribbean, and
3-4 ft elsewhere.

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the south-
central Caribbean through tonight, then diminish significantly
across most of the basin through Mon. Fresh NE winds are expected
in the Windward Passage during the evening hours tonight. Gentle
to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere through Thu before fresh
winds return to the south- central Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from from 31N67W to 26N67W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 60 nm west of the trough
axis. Another surface trough extends from 31N59W to 22N60W.
Scattered showers are in the vicinity of this trough. High
pressure dominates the remainder of the subtropical waters north
of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail north of 23N and west of
60W, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere north 20N. Seas are
in the 3-5 ft range west of 60W, and 4-7 ft east of 60W.

Over the deep tropics south of 20N, the monsoon trough extends
across the waters from the coast of Africa to near 55W. Moderate
to fresh tradewinds prevail north of the monsoon trough, with
gentle to moderate SW to W monsoon flow south of the monsoon
trough. Three low pressure centers are embedded within the
monsoon trough. These lows are being monitored for potential
tropical cyclone development. Please see the latest Atlantic
Tropical Weather Outlook for more information.

For the forecast W of 65W, fresh winds will pulse north of
Hispaniola, including the approaches to the Windward Passage
tonight. Elsewhere, the Atlc surface ridge associated with the
Bermuda- Azores high will persist with axis well N of the area for
the next several days. A tropical wave with active weather is
expected to enter the SE waters Mon night, move across the NE
Carib and adjacent Atlc waters Tue night, and reach the SE Bahamas
late Wed.

$$
AL
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