[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080549
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Aug 8 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W, just to the west
of the Cabo Verde Islands, from 20N southward, moving westward 10
to 15 knots. A 1012 mb low pressure center is along the tropical
wave near 14N. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 250
nm on either side of the tropical wave. Strong upper level winds
and cooler water temperatures are expected to prevent significant
development of this system, while it moves toward the west or
west-northwest about 10 mph during the next few days. Locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds still are possible in parts of the
westernmost Cabo Verde Islands through Sunday.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W, from 21N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby
precipitation is more related to the monsoon trough, and to the
1011 mb low pressure center that is near 14N41W. Environmental
conditions are expected to become a little more favorable for
gradual development of the 1011 mb low pressure center, that is
near 14N41W, during the next several days. It is possible that
this system may become a tropical depression by the middle of the
upcoming week. The system is forecast to move slowly toward the
west-southwest or west, during the next couple of days, and then
move a little faster toward the west-northwest by the middle of
the upcoming week.

A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 12N52W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 09N to 13N
between 50W and 55W. Some gradual development of this system is
possible, while it moves west-northwestward 10 to 15 mph, reaching
parts of the Lesser Antilles late on Monday, and then moving
across the eastern Caribbean Sea and the Greater Antilles through
the middle of the upcoming week.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is mostly in the Atlantic Ocean, within 45 nm on
either side of the line 12N57W 13N58W 15N60W 17N61W 19N62W.
Isolated moderate rainshowers also are within 430 nm to the west
of the tropical wave. Some gradual development of this system is
possible while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
reaching portions of the Lesser Antilles late Monday and then
moving across the eastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles
through the middle of this week.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of western
Mauritania near 21N17W, to the 1012 mb low pressure center that is
near 14N25W, to 12N31W, to a 1011 mb low pressure center that is
near 14N41W, to 13N47W, to 09N57W. Precipitation: numerous strong
is within 220 nm of the 14N41W low pressure center in the W
semicircle. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from
07N to 10N between 44W and 49W, and within 75 nm on either side
of the line 06N39W 09N34W 10N31W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere
from 16N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Areas of upper level cyclonic wind flow surround Florida. One such
area reaches the Straits of Florida, from the Atlantic Ocean
32N54W cyclonic circulation center. A second area of upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A
third area of upper level cyclonic wind flow covers Alabama,
Georgia, and the Carolinas, and it is associated with a stationary
front that passes through the Carolinas to Georgia and Alabama.
Precipitation: warming cloud top temperatures, dissipating
precipitation, and convective debris clouds cover Florida and its
coastal waters. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
from 29N to 32N between 78W and 81W in the Atlantic Ocean, within
100 nm to the ENE of NE Florida near 30N81W.

A NW-to-SE oriented upper level trough is in central Mexico.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A separate area of upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers much of the rest of the SW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico. This area is related to the upper level
cyclonic wind flow that is covering the NW corner of the Caribbean
Sea.

Moderate to fresh E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan
Peninsula, into the Bay of Campeche, every night through Tuesday
night, in association with a diurnal trough. A weak surface ridge
along 26N/27N will dominate the Gulf waters during the next
several days, producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of the SE
corner of the Yucatan Peninsula/Belize. Upper level cyclonic wind
flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 13N northward from 74W
westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
covers the area that is from 13N in the Caribbean Sea to 24N in
the SE Gulf of Mexico from 74W westward, within the confines of
the broad upper level cyclonic wind flow.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is mostly in the Atlantic Ocean, within 45 nm
on either side of the line 12N57W 13N58W 15N60W 17N61W 19N62W.
Isolated moderate rainshowers also are within 430 nm to the west
of the tropical wave.

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the south
central Caribbean Sea through tonight, then diminish significantly
across most of the basin from Sunday through Monday. Expect fresh
east winds in the Gulf of Honduras, through the nighttime hours.
Fresh NE winds are expected in the Windward Passage during the
evening hours this weekend. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail
elsewhere through Thursday, before fresh winds return to the
south central Caribbean Sea.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 32N54W cyclonic circulation
center, to 26N64W, to 23N75W, to the Straits of Florida. One
surface trough is along 58W/60W from 21N to 32N. A second surface
trough is along 67W/68W from 25N to 30N. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is from 25N northward between 50W and 75W.
Isolated moderate also is between the Bahamas and Cuba, and
between the Bahamas and Florida

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is
from 23N northward from 55W eastward. A 1030 mb high pressure
center is near 36N44W.

Fresh winds will pulse to the north of Hispaniola, including in
the approaches to the Windward Passage, at night through the
weekend. The Atlantic Ocean surface ridge, that is associated with
the Bermuda-to-Azores high, will persist well to the N of the
area for the next several days. A tropical wave with active
weather is expected to enter the SE waters on Monday night, to
move across the NE Caribbean Sea and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean
waters on Tuesday night, and reach the SE Bahamas late on
Wednesday.

$$
mt/al
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net