[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060924
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Aug 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave is along 15W, from 17N southward, moving westward
10 to 15 knots. A 1012 mb low pressure center is along the wave
near 11.5N. the west coast of Africa is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear to be somewhat conducive for gradual development. It is
likely for a tropical depression form during the upcoming
weekend, or early next week, while the system moves generally
west-northwestward, across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
The chance for formation into a tropical cyclone, during the next
48 hours, is medium. Please, read the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook, at www.nhc.noaa.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 18W from 18N southward, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 13W and 20W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 33W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
noted where the wave intersects the monsoon trough.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 51W/52W, from 18N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 51W and 55W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 71W, from 17N southward,
moving westward 15 to 20 knots. No significant deep convection is
noted with the wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 81W, from 15N southward,
moving westward 10 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 12N to 16N between 80W and 84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 17N16W to 12N22W to 13N34W to
08N51W. Aside convection noted within the tropical waves section,
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to
15N between 20W and 30W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 03N to 12N between 35W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through NE Florida, into the north
central Gulf of Mexico. Light to gentle winds are across the
northern Gulf, with moderate to fresh winds across the southern
Gulf. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range over the far NE Gulf as well as
to the west of the Yucatan peninsula. Elsewhere, seas are in the
1-3 ft range.

The front will weaken today while lifting northward, and
dissipate tonight just north of the area. Moderate to fresh E
winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of
Campeche every night through Tue night in association with a
diurnal trough. Elsewhere, a surface ridge will dominate the Gulf
waters over the next several days producing gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds are noted over the south central Caribbean
with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-9 ft
range over the south central Caribbean, 5-6 ft over the north
central Caribbean, and 3-4 ft elsewhere.

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the south-
central Caribbean through Sat night near the coast of NE Colombia
and NW Venezuela. Expect fresh east winds in the Gulf of Honduras
from late afternoon through the nighttime hours, each day through
Sat night. Fresh NE winds are expected in the Windward Passage
during the evening hours this weekend. Gentle to moderate trades
will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 30N53W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 25N
northward between 45W and 62W. A surface trough is along 29N51W
25N50W 23N49W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered
moderate is within 90 nm of the center in the E semicircle.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 20N northward
between 40W and 60W.

An upper level trough extends from the NW Bahamas, beyond Cuba
along 78W/79W, to an upper level upper level cyclonic circulation
center that is about 150 nm to the ENE of the border of eastern
Honduras and NE Nicaragua. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, and
isolated moderate rainshowers, cover the Atlantic Ocean from 27N
southward from 70W westward.

Broad easterly surface wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, from
20N northward. This wind regime exists, away from the 29N51W-
23N49W surface trough, on the southern side of large-scale
anticyclonic wind flow. A 1031 mb high pressure center is near
37N40W.

The current stationary front, that passes through NE Florida, will
move to the north of the area by Friday morning. Fresh winds will
pulse to the north of Hispaniola, including in the approaches to
the Windward Passage, at night through the weekend. A surface
ridge, that is associated with the Bermuda-Azores high pressure
center, will persist for the next several days.

$$
AL
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