[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060745
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...corrected date
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Aug 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave is along 15W, from 17N southward, moving westward
10 to 15 knots. A 1012 mb low pressure center is along the wave
near 11.5N. the west coast of Africa is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear to be somewhat conducive for gradual development. It is
likely for a tropical depression form during the upcoming
weekend, or early next week, while the system moves generally
west-northwestward, across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
The chance for formation into a tropical cyclone, during the next
48 hours, is medium. Please, read the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook, at www.nhc.noaa.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: it is
possible that any nearby precipitation may be more related to the
monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W/51W, from 18N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: it is
possible that any nearby precipitation may be more related to the
monsoon trough.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W, from 17N southward,
moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: no significant deep
convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W/79W, from 15N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. The tropical wave is moving
through the area of an upper level trough whose southernmost point
is in Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
near 15N17W, to 14N32W, to 12N45W, 10N47W, to 08N54W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within a radius of 120 nm of 11N23W, and from 06N to 09N between
21W and 26W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 240 nm
on either side of the monsoon trough between 40W and 54W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through NE Florida, into the north
central Gulf of Mexico, to the Texas Gulf coast near 27N.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong, and other
convective debris clouds, cover the waters that are from 23N
northward from 93W eastward.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, from 25N southward from 90W westward. The northern Yucatan
Peninsula upper level cyclonic circulation center, from 24 hours
ago, has moved northwestward to 23N92W. Precipitation: scattered
to numerous strong is inland, in the eastern sections of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

The current stationary front extends across the northern Gulf of
Mexico. The front will weaken on Friday, while moving northward,
and it will dissipate on Friday night just to the north of the
area. Moderate to fresh E winds will pulse, off the NW Yucatan
Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche, every night through Tuesday
night, in association with a diurnal trough. A surface ridge will
dominate the Gulf waters, during the next several days, producing
gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 150 nm to the
ENE of the border of eastern Honduras and NE Nicaragua. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate rainshowers, cover
the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward. This includes: off the coast
of Haiti, and from Cuba southward to 11N81W.

Persistent moisture remains around Puerto Rico. Precipitation:
isolated to widely scattered moderate rainshowers cover the rest
of the Caribbean Sea, including around Puerto Rico, from 70W
eastward.

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south central
Caribbean Sea, through Friday night, near the coast of NE
Colombia and NW Venezuela. Expect fresh east winds in the Gulf of
Honduras, from late afternoon through the nighttime hours, each
day through Saturday night. Fresh NE winds are expected in the
Windward Passage during the evening hours this weekend. Gentle to
moderate trades will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 30N53W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 25N
northward between 45W and 62W. A surface trough is along 29N51W
25N50W 23N49W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered
moderate is within 90 nm of the center in the E semicircle.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 20N northward
between 40W and 60W.

An upper level trough extends from the NW Bahamas, beyond Cuba
along 78W/79W, to an upper level upper level cyclonic circulation
center that is about 150 nm to the ENE of the border of eastern
Honduras and NE Nicaragua. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, and
isolated moderate rainshowers, cover the Atlantic Ocean from 27N
southward from 70W westward.

Broad easterly surface wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, from
20N northward. This wind regime exists, away from the 29N51W-
23N49W surface trough, on the southern side of large-scale
anticyclonic wind flow. A 1031 mb high pressure center is near
37N40W.

The current stationary front, that passes through NE Florida, will
move to the north of the area by Friday morning. Fresh winds will
pulse to the north of Hispaniola, including in the approaches to
the Windward Passage, at night through the weekend. A surface
ridge, that is associated with the Bermuda-Azores high pressure
center, will persist for the next several days.

$$
mt/al
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