[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Apr 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 04N16W, to 02N23W. The
ITCZ continues from 02N23W, to the Equator along 30W, and
continuing along the Equator at 38W. Precipitation: Isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 10N southward from 60W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through 32N72W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
Florida just to the north of Lake Okeechobee, into the central
Gulf of Mexico, to 24N92W. A surface trough continues from
24N92W, to 22N96W. High level clouds are moving from Texas and
Mexico into the Gulf of Mexico, from 22N northward from 88W
westward. No significant deep convective precipitation is
apparent in satellite imagery.

Smoke from agricultural fires and forest fires, in Mexico and in
Guatemala, has been spreading across the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico, and reaching into the central and northeastern Gulf of
Mexico, along and to the south of the cold front, limiting
visibility in some areas.

The current cold front, that is extending from near Ft. Myers in
Florida southwestward to 24N92W, will move across the SE Gulf of
Mexico tonight, while gradually weakening. Fresh to strong SE
winds are expected across the western Gulf of Mexico, from
Tuesday night through Thursday morning, in advance of the next
cold front that is forecast to come off the coast of Texas late
on Thursday. Gale conditions are possible in the SW Gulf of
Mexico, behind the front, on Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge extends from the Gulf of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico to NE Nicaragua. Upper level cyclonic wind flow
covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. anticyclonic
circulation center is in southern coastal Guatemala. Upper level
anticyclonic wind flow covers much of the Caribbean Sea, except
for the southeastern corner of the area. An upper level trough
moves from the Atlantic Ocean, across the SE Caribbean Sea
islands, toward the eastern half of Venezuela.
Upper level NW-to-W wind flow covers much of the Caribbean Sea.

The GFS model for 500 mb shows an anticyclonic circulation
center in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, and
broad anticyclonic wind flow everywhere in the Caribbean Sea
from 70W westward. The GFS model for 700 mb shows an
anticyclonic circulation center that is just off the NW corner
of the Yucatan Peninsula. Anticyclonic wind flow covers the
Caribbean Sea from 70W westward.

The monsoon trough is along 09N between 75W in Colombia, beyond
85W, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is from 02N to 05N between 73W and
75W, and from 05N to 07N between 74W and 78W. Isolated moderate
to locally strong is elsewhere in Colombia.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-
low level wind flow.

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected in the south central
Caribbean Sea near the coast of Colombia tonight, and again on
Monday night, then mainly moderate to locally fresh trade winds
will prevail through Friday. Similar wind speeds are forecast in
the Gulf of Honduras from Wednesday night through Friday, as a
cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong
winds also are expected in the Windward Passage and south of
Dominican Republic, from Tuesday night to Thursday night, as
high pressure builds in the western Atlantic Ocean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The first cold front passes through 32N72W, to Florida just to
the north of Lake Okeechobee, and eventually into the central
Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely
scattered strong is from 31N to 34N within 360 nm to the east of
the cold front. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 180 nm to the east of the cold front from to 26N in the
NW Bahamas to 31N.

A 1025 mb high pressure center is near 34N52W. Broad
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the
32N-to-28N47W cold front, westward and northwestward. A surface
ridge extends from the 1024 mb high pressure center, to 29N58W,
to 22N70W.

The second cold front passes through 32N40W to 28N47W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 26N northward within 800 nm to the east of
the cold front.

A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 28N37W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, from 10N
northward, from 80W eastward, away from the 32N72W-to-Lake
Okeechobee Florida cold front, and away from the
32N40W-to-28N47W cold front.

A cold front extends from 31N73W to near Lake Okeechobee in
Florida. Fresh to strong south to southwest winds are ahead of
the front N of 29N to 65W, while mainly moderate NW to N winds
follow
the front. This system will reach from 31N66W to the NW Bahamas
and the Straits of Florida by Monday morning, and from 31N60W to
the central Bahamas by Monday night, while weakening. Scattered
rainshowers and thunderstorms are ahead of the front.

$$
MT/GR
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