[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252150
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Apr 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the
Guinea/Sierra Leone border near 09N13W and continues SW to
05N15W to 02N25W. The ITCZ extends from 02N25W to the coast of
Brazil near 01N50W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong
convection is seen from 00N-07N between 01E-13W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N-03N
between 16W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Tampa Bay, Florida to the west central
Gulf of Mexico near 23N96W. Fresh NE winds are occurring to the
north of the cold front over the northeast and north-central Gulf,
where seas are 4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate wind speeds are south
of the front, with 2-4 ft seas. A pair of weak surface troughs
are noted over the far southwest Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds
and 2 to 4 ft seas are evident over the southern Gulf. No
significant precipitation is observed over the Gulf. Smoke from
agricultural and forest fires over Mexico and Guatemala is
spreading across the southwest Gulf and reaching into the central
and northeast Gulf along and to the south of the cold front, limiting
visibility in areas.

For the forecast, the cold front will push eastward across the
Gulf waters through this evening while gradually weakening.
Moderate to locally fresh northeasterly winds over the north-
central gulf and north of the front will diminish this evening.
Otherwise, fresh to strong SE to S winds are forecast across the
western half of the Gulf Tue evening through Thu morning ahead of
the next cold front which is expected to come off the coast of
Texas late on Thu. Fresh to strong northerly winds following this
front will affect the eastern coast of Mexico and adjacent
waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid to upper-level anticyclonic wind flow covers most of the
Caribbean Sea, supporting subsidence and dry weather across the
basin. Fresh to strong NE winds are ongoing off northeast
Colombia with 5 to 8 ft over the south-central Caribbean. Fresh
SE winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are evident between central Honduras
and northern Belize. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 3 to 5
ft seas are evident elsewhere.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected
in the south-central and portions of the southwest Caribbean
through early Wed, then mainly moderate to locally fresh winds
will prevail through Fri. Moderate to locally fresh east-
southeast winds in the Gulf of Honduras are forecast to increase
to fresh to strong Wed night as a cold front moves across the
Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the
Windward Passage Tue night to Fri as high pressure builds over
the western Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N75W to Cape Canaveral, Florida.
Fresh to strong SW winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are noted within 90
nm of the cold front north of 29N. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are evident north of 30N within 300 to 480
nm east of the front. Moderate to fresh NW winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas are noted west of the front. A ridge extends from a 1024 mb
high pressure near 34N54W to the northern Bahamas. A 1022 mb high
pressure area is centered near 29N37W, with a dissipating
stationary front in between the two high pressure cells, north of
30N. Moderate to fresh NW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident
east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate trade winds south of 20N, with
4 to 6 ft seas, and light to gentle breezes with 3 to 5 ft seas
north of 20N.

For the forecast over the waters west of 65W, the front is
forecast to reach from 31N72W to central Florida this evening,
from 28N65W to the northwest Bahamas and the Straits of Florida
Mon evening, and from 26N65W to the central Bahamas by Tue
evening while weakening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
ahead of the front and west of 67W.

$$
Christensen
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