[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240543
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Apr 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 08N13W, to 05N16W, to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from
03N22W, to 01N30W, to the Equator along 36W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 200 nm
to the north of the ITCZ between 24W and 34W.  Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 07N southward between 43W
and 55W. Scattered moderate to strong in small clusters is from
02N southward between 02W and 05W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through NE Florida, from the Atlantic
Ocean, to the SW corner of Louisiana.

A frontal boundary is inland, from southern Mississippi, to a
Texas Panhandle low pressure center.

Smoke, from agricultural fires in southern Mexico, has been
apparent in satellite imagery, affecting much of the southwest
and the west central Gulf of Mexico. Hazy sky conditions from
fires in southern Mexico are possible in most of the western
Gulf of Mexico during this weekend.

Fresh to strong southerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of
Mexico through Saturday. These winds will be present in advance
of a cold front that will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on
Saturday evening. The front will move to the east of the basin
on Sunday night. Hazy sky conditions from fires in southern
Mexico are possible in most of the western Gulf of Mexico during
this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is in Guatemala.
Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers much of the Caribbean
Sea, except for the southeastern corner of the area. An upper
level trough moves from the Atlantic Ocean, across the SE
Caribbean Sea islands, toward the eastern half of Venezuela.

The GFS model for 500 mb shows a Windward Passage anticyclonic
circulation center, and broad anticyclonic wind flow everywhere
in the Caribbean Sea. The GFS model for 700 mb shows: broad
anticyclonic wind flow in the northwestern half of the Caribbean
Sea. Broad cyclonic wind flow, with an inverted trough, covers
the Caribbean Sea from 16N southward from 66W westward.

The monsoon trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, through
the eastern sections of Panama near 08N78W, beyond 08N84W, into
the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is in Colombia, to the southeast of the monsoon
trough.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow.

Fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean Sea, and in the
Gulf of Honduras, will diminish on Sunday, as high pressure in
the Atlantic Ocean shifts eastward. A small area of fresh to
strong winds will persist near the coast of Colombia through
early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N56W, to 29N60W, to 26N67W.
Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
isolated to widely scattered moderate are within 500 nm to the
east and southeast of the cold front, from 23N northward.

A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 32N73W. Broad
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the cold
front westward and northwestward. A surface ridge extends from
the 1024 mb high pressure center, to NE Florida, and toward the
north central Gulf of Mexico.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N10W, to
just to the east of the Canary Islands, to 24N20W and to 20N22W.
A surface trough continues from 20N22W, to 21N35W, to 23N42W,
and to 28N48W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and possible rainshowers, are within 120 nm on either
side of the cold front and the surface trough.

A 1026 mb high pressure center is near 32N39W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the north of
the cold front/surface trough.

A cold front will move to the east of northern Florida on
Sunday, then weaken as it moves to the NE of the Bahamas through
Monday night. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop ahead
of the front on Saturday and Saturday night. Scattered
rainshowers and isolated strong thunderstorms are possible to
the east of the front.

$$
mt/DM
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