[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232202
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Apr 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
and Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 02N25W. The ITCZ continues from
02N25W to the coast of Brazil near 00N47W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from the 02N-06N between
20W-25W, and from 02N-05N between 30W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Recent buoy and platform observations along with scatterometer
satellite data indicate moderate to fresh SE over the central and
western Gulf of Mexico between high pressure off the Carolinas
and a trough over northeast Mexico. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over the
central and western Gulf. Light to gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft
seas are noted over the eastern Gulf. Smoke from agricultural
fires in southern Mexico is noted on latest satellite imagery affecting
much of the southwest and west central Gulf.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong southeasterly winds will
prevail across the Gulf this afternoon through Sat. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected along the northern Gulf coast this
afternoon through Sat night. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf
on Sat evening and continue progressing eastward through Sun. The
front will exit the basin by Sun night. In the Bay of Campeche,
smoke from Central America could lower visibilities Fri night
into Sat morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid-upper level anticyclonic ridge extends across the northern
Caribbean Sea, except for the following a sharp upper trough
through Barbados. This pattern is keeping fairly dry conditions
across the basin. Fresh to strong trade winds are active off
Colombia, with moderate to fresh trade winds elsewhere over the
south-central and southeast Caribbean. Observations from the Bay
Islands show fresh to strong E winds are noted north of
Honduras. Moderate trade winds elsewhere. A recent altimeter
satellite pass confirmed 8 to 10 ft seas off Colombia. Seas are 2
to 4 ft in the northwest Caribbean and mostly 4 to 6 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds off Colombia and Gulf of
Honduras will diminish by Sun as high pressure in the central
Atlantic shifts eastward. A small area of fresh to strong winds
will persist near the coast of Colombia through early next week.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail on Sun into
early next week. Fresh to strong winds are expected to return to
the Gulf of Honduras by midweek.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1023 mb high pressure is centered between Bermuda and the
Carolinas near 32N72W. A cold front reaches from near 32N59W to
28N65W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 120
nm east of the front north of 28N. Moderate NE winds and 4 to 6
ft seas are noted west of the front. Farther east, 1025 mb high
pressure is centered near 32N39W, with a cold front reaching from
off Portugal through the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh NW
winds along with 8 to 15 ft seas primarily in NW swell are
evident north of 15N west of the front to 35W. Moderate to
occasionally fresh trades and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 65W, a cold front will move east of
northern Florida on Sun morning, then weaken and move NE of the
Bahamas through Mon night. Fresh to strong southerly winds will
develop ahead of the front Sat and Sat night, then shift eastward
over the northern waters through Sun night. Gentle to moderate
winds can be expected behind the front. Scattered showers and
strong thunderstorms are possible east of the front.

$$
Christensen
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