[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220917
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Apr 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W
and continues SW to 03N21W. The ITCZ extends from 03N21W to
01N37W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is located from 00N to 08N between
South America and Africa.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is located from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan
Peninsula. Previous convection associated with this weakening
front has diminished. A second cold front is located from near
Sarasota, Florida, to 25N90W, then becomes stationary and extends
to just north of Tampico, Mexico. Fresh NE winds are occurring
across most of the basin, with the exception of areas SE of the
first front, where winds are light. Seas range from 3 to 6 ft,
highest in the western Gulf.

The first front will exit the basin this morning, while
the second front will stall from the Florida Keys to Tampico,
Mexico, this afternoon. The second front will lift north as a
warm front Friday into Saturday, with strong southerly winds
developing in the W and central Gulf in its wake. A new cold front
will then enter the basin from the Texas coast late Sat. This
front will across the rest of the Gulf through Sun night as it
weakens.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong trades continue over the south-central Caribbean,
with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-10 ft
range over the south-central Caribbean, 4-6 ft elsewhere over the
eastern and central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft over the NW part of the
basin. Higher pressure centered well N and E of the region is
dominating weather over the basin, keeping conditions mainly dry.
Even earlier convection associated with a trough of low pressure
over the Yucatan Peninsula has diminished.

Fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean will
diminish slightly into the weekend as high pressure over the
central Atlantic shifts eastward, except near the coast of
Colombia where these winds will persist through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

W of 65W, a cold front extends from Bermuda to the NW Bahamas to
the NW tip of Cuba. Scattered moderate convection has developed
along this front overnight, generally NE of 27N72W. A second cold
front has moved off the SE U.S. coast overnight. N of 29N and W of
76W, behind this second front, strong N winds are occurring.
Elsewhere, behind the first front, winds are mainly gentle and W.
N of 25N and ahead of the first front, fresh SW winds prevail,
with gentle to moderate mainly southerly winds between 20N and
25N, and moderate to fresh trades to the S. Seas through the basin
W of 65W average 3 to 6 ft.

The second fron will merge with the first this afternoon, and the
combined cold front will stretch from around 31N64W through the
NW Bahamas and into the Florida Straits tonight. N of 29N, fresh
to strong SW are expected today in advance of the first front,
with strong NW winds behind the second front diminishing to
moderate to fresh by this afternoon. Sun morning, a stronger cold
front is expected to approach the southeastern U.S. coast and move
across the waters NE of the Bahamas through Mon night while
weakening. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop over the
NW waters Sat and Sat night, and shift eastward over the far
north-central and NE waters through Sun night. Thunderstorms are
possible ahead of this front.

Elsewhere E of 65W, a 1025 mb high is centered near 33N48W with
the associated ridge covering the remainder of the Atlantic
forecast waters. A storm force 985 mb low pressure is located
north of the area, near the Azores. The attendant cold front
enters the forecast region near 31N29W and extends to 28N45W.
Seas generated by this storm are currently reaching the northern
forecast waters N of 28N and E of 45W, building seas to 8-12 ft
in NW swell.


$$
KONARIK
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net