[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220534
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Apr 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W
and continues SW to 03N21W. The ITCZ extends from 03N21W to
01N37W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is from 02S-06N between 12W-34W, from
01S-04N west of 43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Naples, Florida southwestward to
the eastern Bay of Campeche near 21N92W. Scattered showers with
embedded thunderstorms is ahead of the frontal boundary over the
SE Gulf. This convective activity is reaching the northern coast
of western Cuba. Another cold front extends from the Florida Big
Bend to just south of Brownsville, Texas. Cold air stratocumulus
clouds are noted behind the front, particularly W of 90W as seen
on visible satellite imagery. Fresh north to northeast winds
follow the fronts. Winds and seas could be higher near tstms in
the SE Gulf.

The first front will exit the southeastern early this evening.
The second cold front will reach from west- central Florida
to the central Gulf by late tonight, then weaken early Thu as
it reaches from southwest Florida to near 23N90W. Fresh to
strong southerly return flow will develop over the western Gulf
Fri, shift to the central Gulf early Sat and diminish late Sat as
another cold front enters the far NW Gulf, and moves across the
rest of the Gulf through Sun night as it weakens. In its wake,
high pressure will shift eastward across the Gulf through Mon
night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue over the
southeastern Gulf waters through early tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The most recent satellite derived wind data provided observations
of fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean, with
near-gale force winds within about 90 nm of the coast of
Colombia. Moderate to fresh trade winds were noted elsewhere,
with the exception of light and variable winds across the Windward
Passage, and an area of fresh easterly winds across the Leeward
Islands and regional waters, including the Anegada Passage. Seas
are in the 8-10 ft range over the south-central Caribbean, 4-6 ft
elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft over
the NW part of the basin. Patches of low level moisture embedded
in the trade wind flow are currently reaching Puerto Rico and the
US/UK Virgin Islands producing isolated to scattered passing
showers. A surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula is enhancing
showers and thunderstorms extending into the Gulf of Honduras
north to 20N.

Fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean will
diminish slightly late in the week as high pressure over the
central Atlantic shifts eastward, except near the coast of
Colombia where these winds will persist through the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

W of 65W, a cold front extends from 30N68W to the Florida Straits
Into the Gulf of Mexico. Some shower activity is associated with
the front, forecast to weaken as it reaches from near 31N67W to
central Cuba by early Thu. At the same time, a second cold front
that will move off the southeastern U.S. coast tonight will reach
from near 31N70W to South Florida on Thu. The second front will
merge with the remnants of the first front Thu afternoon, reaching
from 31N68W to west-central Cuba and weaken as it moves across
the waters NE of the Bahamas through late Fri. Fresh to strong
southwest winds ahead of the first front N of 29N will lift north
of the area Thu. Strong northwest winds behind the second front
will diminish Thu.

On Sat night, a stronger cold front is expected to approach the
southeastern U.S. coast and move across the waters NE of the
Bahamas through Mon night while weakening. Fresh to strong
southerly winds will develop over the NW waters Sat and Sat
night, and shift eastward over the far north-central and NE
waters through Sun night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible ahead of this front.

Elsewhere E of 65W, a 1026 mb high is centered near 33N49W with
the associated ridge covering the remainder of the Atlantic
forecast waters. A storm force 986 mb low pressure is located
north of the area. The attendant cold front enters the forecast
region near 31N36W and extends along 29N55W. Seas generated by
this storm are currently reaching the northern forecast waters
E of 34W, building seas to 8-12 ft in NW swell.

$$
MTorres
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