[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200536
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Apr 20 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W
to the Equator along 34W, and continuing westward to the Amazon
Delta near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 n
mi of the boundaries between 11W and 39W and west of 45W.


GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal boundary remains stalled from central Florida to the
Bay of Campeche, and then inland across portions of eastern
Mexico. A trough lies over the Yucatan Peninsula with scattered
moderate convection over the region. Showers and thunderstorms are
mainly confined to the southeastern waters including the Florida
Straits and over portions of south Florida. Despite the boundary,
winds are not very strong due to a fairly weak pressure gradient
across the area.

The front will remain nearly stationary into Wed, before
reinforcing cool and dry air pushes the front into the far
southeastern Gulf Wed night dissipating Thu. High pressure in its
wake will shift eastward through Sat night as a cold front reaches
eastern Texas. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop over
the NW and central Gulf Fri through early on Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Showers and thunderstorms are moving southward across the far
northwestern Caribbean Sea waters ahead of the Gulf of Mexico
front/trough. Similar activity is occurring over land across
portions of Central America. Otherwise, generally tranquil
conditions prevail across the remainder of the area supported by
surface high pressure and dry air aloft. Latest ASCAT pass shows
strongest trade winds across the central Caribbean, 20-25 kt, but
are moderate elsewhere.

Fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean will
diminish by late in the week as high pressure over the central
Atlantic shifts eastward, except near the coast of Colombia where
these winds will persist through the period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front and a couple of frontal waves lie across the western
Atlantic and are producing a line of showers and thunderstorms
extending from near Bermuda across the northwestern Bahamas to
southern Florida. The remainder of the subtropical and tropical
Atlantic, outside of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, look tranquil at
the moment supported by surface ridging and dry/stable air.
Moderate to fresh northeast winds prevail north of 04N to 26N
across the tropical Atlantic.

A weak cold front extending from 31N77W to inland east-central
Florida will move slightly south through late tonight, then
stall through through late Tue night. It will move again as a
cold front Wed through Thu while weakening and stalling out near
25N Thu night through Fri night. It will lift back N as a warm
front Sat and Sat night as another cold front approaches the
southeastern U.S. coast preceded by fresh to strong southerly
winds, and with possible scattered showers and thunderstorms.

$$
TORRES
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