[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192339
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Apr 19 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 07N16W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W
to the Equator along 29W, and continuing westward along the
Equator to 34W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 n mi
of the boundaries between 18W and 34W.


GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal boundary remains stalled from central Florida to the Bay
of Campeche, and then inland across portions of eastern Mexico. A
trough lies just ahead of the front over the southeastern Gulf.
Showers and thunderstorms are mainly confined to the southeastern
waters and over portions of south Florida. Despite the boundary,
winds are not very strong due to a fairly weak pressure gradient
across the area.

The stationary front is expected to remain nearly stationary into
mid-week. Thereafter, a reinforcing cooler and drier airmass
should push the front across the far southeastern Gulf of Mexico
by late week.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Showers and thunderstorms are moving southward across the far
northwestern Caribbean Sea waters ahead of the Gulf of Mexico
front/trough. Similar activity is occurring over land across
portions of Central America. Otherwise, generally tranquil
conditions prevail across the remainder of the area supported by
surface high pressure and dry air aloft. Trade winds are strongest
across the central Caribbean, 20-25 kt, but are moderate
elsewhere.

The ridge to the north of the area is expected to strengthen and
shift eastward, which should allow fresh to strong trades to
continue across the south-central portions of the region during
the next couple of days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front and a couple of frontal waves lie across the western
Atlantic and are producing a line of showers and thunderstorms
extending from near Bermuda across the northwestern Bahamas to
southern Florida. The remainder of the subtropical and tropical
Atlantic, outside of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, look tranquil at
the moment supported by surface ridging and dry/stable air.

The frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary off the coast
of northeastern Florida through Tuesday night as a ridge extends
westward from the central Atlantic Ocean to the central Bahamas.
The ridge will slide eastward on Wednesday, in response to a cold
front that will move off the southeastern US coast. The front
will reach from near 31N74W to south-central Florida on Wednesday
night, and from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late
Thursday. The front is forecast to begin to stall along 25N
through Friday night, as high pressure builds between northeastern
Florida and Bermuda.

$$
Cangialosi
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