[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Apr 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Caribbean Ashfall Advisory: An Ashfall Advisory has been
reissued for La Soufriere Volcano on the island of St. Vincent
near 13.3N 61.2W. Latest forecast indicates that the ash cloud is
now moving N and then NNE toward Dominica. Intermittent volcanic
ash emissions are expected through 16/1400Z. The volcano remains
in a state of unrest. Additional eruptions and ash plumes are
possible. Mariners transiting the nearby waters should exercise
caution, and are encouraged to report volcanic ash to the National
Hurricane Center by calling 305-229-4424.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to enter
the northwest Gulf Saturday morning and move southward across the
basin bringing strong winds and building seas. An area of Gale-
force northerly to northeasterly winds is expected offshore of
the Tampico area Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Seas
will build to 9 ft. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through the coast of
West Africa near 12N16W and continues SW to 07N18W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N18W to 02N30W to the coast of South America near
00N45W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 02N-05N between
15W-31W and from 00N-04N W of 35W to the coast of South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico.

A nearly stationary front is drapped from near Panama City,
Florida, to Corpus Christi, Texas. Convection associated with this
boundary has diminished overnight, but more thunderstorms are
expected north of the boundary later today. Winds are generally
light to moderate throughout the basin, with some fresh to locally
strong winds offshore the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 3-5 ft
across the basin. Note that areas of smoke and haze in the western
Gulf may reduce visibility.

The stationary front will remain over the northern Gulf into
Saturday, before being overtaken by a cold front that will stretch
from the Florida Peninsula to Bay of Campeche by the end of the
weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An Ashfall Advisory is in effect for La Soufriere volcano on the
island of St. Vincent. See the special features section above
for details.

Weak ridging continues to dominate Cuba and the NW Caribbean with
gentle trade winds. The rest of the basin is under the influence of
a pressure gradient between higher pressure to the north and low
pressure over Colombia, allowing for fresh trades to prevail across
the central and western Caribbean, with moderate trades in the
eastern portion of the basin. Seas are 4-7 ft over the central
Caribbean and 2-5 ft elsewhere.

Fresh to strong SE winds are expected in the NW Caribbean this
weekend, and then again Tue night. Fresh to strong trade winds
will prevail across the central Caribbean Sun night through early
next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 60W: Weak high pressure of 1016 mb centered near 26N61W
continues to dominate the western Atlantic waters allowing for
gentle anticyclonic winds. However, with a cold front just north
of area waters, N of 28N fresh to strong SW winds have developed.
Seas are 3-6 ft in this region.

A cold front will move off the northern Florida coast
today, then remain over the far northern waters through the
weekend. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will dominate.

East of 60W: A cold front stretches from 32N38W to 25N45W where it
becomes stationary and extends SW to 19N56W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 100 nm ahead of the front. Another cold
front is noted from 32N48W to 28N53W. Winds N of 20N are generally
moderate, with fresh trades to the south. Seas average 6 to 10 ft
throughout the basin.

$$
KONARIK
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