[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Apr 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Caribbean Ashfall Advisory: An Ashfall Advisory has been
reissued for La Soufriere Volcano on the island of St. Vincent
near 13.3N 61.2W. Latest forecast indicates that the ash cloud is
now moving N and then NNE toward Dominica. Intermittent volcanic
ash emissions are expected through 16/0900Z. The volcano remains
in a state of unrest. Additional eruptions and ash plumes are
possible. Mariners transiting the nearby waters should exercise
caution, and are encouraged to report volcanic ash to the
National Hurricane Center by calling 305-229-4424.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to enter
the western Gulf Saturday morning and move southward across the
basin bringing strong winds and building seas. An area of
Gale-force northerly to northeasterly winds are expected offshore of
the Tampico area Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Seas will
build to 9 ft as these gale-force winds develop. Please read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through the coast of
West Africa near 12N16W and continues SW to 07N18W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N18W to 02N30W to the coast of South America near
00N45W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 02N-05N between
15W-31W and from 00N-04N W of 35W to the coast of South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico

A stationary front is over the northern Gulf waters stretching from
Pensacola, FL to near Corpus Christi Texas. Scattered thunderstorms
are occurring north of the boundary. As of 0300 UTC, the northern
portion of the boundary over Florida has become a cold front and
extends over southern Georgia and South Carolina. Scatterometer data
notes behind the front E winds are moderate while ahead of the
boundary and north of 25N, S winds are gentle to moderate. Fresh SE
winds are seen in the Yucatan channel and north of the Yucatan
Peninsula, while fresh NE winds are seen west of the Peninsula. Seas
are 3-5 ft across the basin. Note that areas of smoke and haze in
the western Gulf may reduce visibility.

The stationary front will slowly weaken, as a new cold front
moves into the western Gulf Sat night. This front will bring
strong winds and building seas to the western Gulf this weekend,
with gales likely offshore Tampico, Mexico Sat night. This front
will stall from central Florida to the Bay of Campeche Sun night
through early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An Ashfall Advisory is in effect for La Soufriere volcano on the
island of St. Vincent. See the special features section above
for details.

Weak ridging continues to dominate Cuba and the NW Caribbean with
gentle trade winds. The rest of the basin is under the influence of
a pressure gradient between higher pressure to the north and low
pressure over Colombia, allowing for fresh trades to prevail across
the central and western Caribbean,with moderate trades in the
eastern portion of the basin. The tail end of an Atlantic stationary
front continues to linger near the Lesser Antilles where some
showers may be possible. Seas are 4-7 ft over the central Caribbean
and 2-5ft elsewhere.

The stationary front north of the Lesser Antilles will continue
to weaken tonight. Fresh to strong SE winds are expected in the
NW Caribbean this weekend, and then again Tue night. Fresh to
strong trade winds will prevail across the central Caribbean Sun
night through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An Ashfall Advisory remains in effect for La Soufriere Volcano
on the island of St. Vincent. Please refer to the Special
Features section above for more details.

West of 60W: Weak high pressure of 1016 mb centered near 26N64W
continues to dominate the western Atlantic waters allowing for
gentle anticyclonic winds. The exception being off the coast of
Florida where scatterometer data depicts an area of fresh S-SW
winds ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas are 3-6 ft in
this region.

For the forecast, the cold front will move east of northern
Florida into the northern waters by early Fri, then continue
slowly east through the weekend.

East of 65W: The previous secondary cold front has dissipated.
The primary cold front stretches from 32N39W to 21N51W where it
becomes stationary and extends southwestward to the Lesser Antilles.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 100 nm ahead of the
front, north of 20N. Scatterometer data reveals fresh S winds ahead
of the cold front north of 24N and west of 37W. Seas are 6-10 ft in
the vicinity of the front. High pressure north of the discussion
area influences gentle to moderate return flow in the far eastern
Atlantic. Elsewhere, fresh to strong trades prevail from 03N-20N
between the west coast of Africa and 40W. Seas are 5-8 ft.


$$
Mora
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