[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Apr 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Windward Islands Ashfall Advisory: An Ashfall Advisory has been
issued, for La Soufriere
Volcano, that is on the island of St. Vincent, near 13.3N 61.2W.
The volcano currently is in a state of unrest. It is possible
that the volcano may erupt with little notice. It is possible
that ash that was released earlier may be reaching the surface
of the ocean, and low level visibility may be reduced. Mariners
who are transiting the waters under the emitted ash advisory
should exercise caution. Mariners who encounter volcanic ash or
floating volcanic debris, are urged to report the observation to
the National Hurricane Center, by calling 305-229-4424.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 07N17W, to 04N23W. The ITCZ continues from
04N23W, 01N28W, to 01N36W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous
strong is within 210 nm on the southern side of the monsoon
trough, from 17W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong
is elsewhere, from 06N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has reached Florida from the Atlantic Ocean. The
cold front passes through 28N70W, across the NW Bahamas Islands,
to Florida near 26N80W. The front curves northward, through
Florida, beyond south central Georgia. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 25N northward from
90W westward. Some of the precipitation has been weakening with
time.

An inland Texas stationary front extends from east central Texas
into south central Texas.

A cold front will reach the northern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday
night, then stall and weaken on Friday. A second, and strong,
cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.
Strong northerly winds and building seas are expected across the
western Gulf of Mexico during the upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, to the
Colombia/Panama border, beyond 07N80W, into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: Scattered to numerous strong is within 240
nm to the south of the surface trough, from NW Venezuela and
Lake Maracaibo to 03N77W in the coastal sections of Colombia.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow.

An Ashfall Advisory is in effect for La Soufriere Volcano, on
the island of St. Vincent, near 13.3N 61.2W. Mariners who are
transiting the nearby waters should exercise caution. Moderate
to fresh trade winds will prevail in the Caribbean Sea through
Saturday. SE winds will increase in the NW Caribbean Sea on
Friday night and Saturday. Gentle to moderate winds are expected
elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

One cold front passes through 32N64W, to 28N70W, across the NW
Bahamas Islands, to Florida near 26N80W. The front curves
northward, through Florida, beyond south central Georgia.
Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from 25N
northward between 60W and 75W.

A second cold front passes through 32N54W to 26N60W, 20N70W, and
to the northern coast of Haiti.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N
northward between 30W and the second cold front.

A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 26N31W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 14N
northward from 50W eastward.

The current cold front, from 26N60W to northern Hispaniola, will
move eastward through Wednesday night. Fresh to strong northerly
winds, that are associated with reinforcing cold air that is to
the north of the Bahamas between 70W and 80W, will shift
eastward through Wednesday and weaken. Another cold front will
move to the east of northern Florida into the northern waters on
Friday, then stall to the north of the Bahamas this weekend.

$$
mt/DM
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