[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132202
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Apr 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Windward Islands Ashfall Advisory: An Ashfall Advisory remains
in effect for La Soufriere Volcano that is on the island of St.
Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W. The volcano currently is undergoing
light emissions from its summit. It is possible that ash that was
released earlier may be reaching the surface of the ocean, and
low-level visibility may be reduced. Mariners who are transiting
the waters under the emitted ash advisory should exercise caution.
Mariners who encounter volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris,
are urged to report the observation to the National Hurricane
Center, by calling 305-229-4424.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to the
delta of the Amazon river near 00N49W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is from 00N to 06N between 09W and
12W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 05N between 23N
and 46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends over the SW Gulf just west of the
Yucatan peninsula, with high pressure prevailing elsewhere.
Moderate to fresh SE winds prevail across the Gulf waters. Seas
are in the 1-3 ft range within 90 nm of the coastal areas of the
Gulf, and 3-5 ft over the remainder of the Gulf waters.

A weak high pressure ridge over the eastern Gulf will shift
eastward through Wed night ahead of an approaching cold front.
This front will move over the northern Gulf Thu and Thu night,
then become nearly stationary over the NE Gulf Fri into this
weekend as low pressure develops along the boundary. This low is
expected to push a stronger cold front across the western Gulf
Sat and Sun, with strengthening northerly winds and building seas
following its passage.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient prevails over the Caribbean waters.
Moderate winds prevail over much of the Caribbean waters, except
fresh winds over the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are in the 1-3 ft
range over the Windward passage as well as in the lee of Cuba.
Seas in the 3-5 ft range prevail elsewhere.

An Ashfall Advisory is in effect for La Soufriere Volcano on the
island of St. Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W. Mariners transiting the
Tropical N Atlantic waters south of 15N should exercise caution
and be aware of the possibility of encountering volcanic ash.
Otherwise, fresh to strong winds will pulse near the Gulf of
Honduras over the next few nights. Elsewhere, generally moderate
to fresh trade winds will persist through this week, possibly
strengthening later this weekend over the south-central
Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two cold fronts are moving across the western Atlantic waters.
One extends from 32N68W to Central Florida. Fresh to strong winds
are noted within 180 NM west of the front N of 76W. Seas over
this area are in the 6-7 ft range. The other front extends from
32N64W to The SE Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds area within 210
NM east of the from N of 25N. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over
this area. Elsewhere west of 50W and N of 20N, moderate to fresh
winds, and seas of 4-7 ft prevail. Farther east, 1022 mb high
pressure is centered near 26N30W. Light to gentle winds are in
the vicinity of the high center, with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere N of 20N and east of 50W. S of 20N, moderate to fresh
winds prevail. Seas east of 50W are in the 4-7 ft range.

An Ashfall Advisory is in effect for La Soufriere Volcano on the
island of St. Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W. Mariners transiting the
Tropical N Atlantic waters south of 15N between 43W-55W should be
aware of the possibility for the existence of volcanic ash.

For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front that extends from the
central Atlantic to near the Turks and Caicos Islands will
continue moving eastward and pass east of the forecast waters by
Wed night. Another cold front that extends from near 31N70W to
28N80W will move across the northern waters through Wed,
resulting in strong to near gale- force winds and building seas N
of 27N and E of 75W. Yet another cold front will move off the
southeastern U.S. coast later this week and into the northern
offshore waters Fri, then stall north of the Bahamas this
weekend.

$$
AL
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