[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101026
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Apr 10 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Windward Islands Ashfall Advisory: La Soufriere volcano on the
island of Saint Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W is active, and continues
to erupt. Satellite imagery shows the volcanic ash plume spreading
east and northeast of St. Vincent, roughly in an area bounded by
12.5N59W to 13N61.5W to 13.5N61.5W to 15N58W back to 12.5N59W,
which includes Barbados. Violent volcanic eruptions may occur
suddenly without any warning. Volcanic ash may be reaching the
ocean surface east-northeast of St. Vincent. Mariners should
exercise caution, and report volcanic ash or floating debris to
the National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4424.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends southward from the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from
06N19W to 02N32W to 02N47W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted from 02N-06N between 07W-21W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh south to southeast winds cover most the Gulf of
Mexico. Seas are 3-6 ft. A large area of thunderstorms across
coastal sections of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and western
panhandle of Florida extends into the near-shore waters of the
northern Gulf, north of 29N between 86W and 92W. These storms are
likely to push offshore later this morning, with strong gusty
winds and frequent lightning possible in thunderstorms.

Fresh southerly winds will prevail across the basin today ahead
of cold front that will move into the NW Gulf later today, then
stall and weaken from the Florida panhandle to northern Mexico by
Sun night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with the
front are expected in the NE Gulf this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section above for details on an ashfall
advisory issued for ongoing volcanic eruptions on St. Vincent.

Recent scatterometer data shows fresh trade winds in the east-
central part of the Caribbean, and mostly gentle winds in the
western Caribbean. Seas are 5-6 ft over most of the central and
eastern Caribbean, and 3-4 ft in the western part of the basin.
Isolated to scattered shower activity is noted across the SW
Caribbean, south of 15N and west of 72W. Numerous showers are
occurring over Costa Rica, including western Panama and parts of
southern Nicaragua.

Fresh SE winds are expected across the NW Caribbean this weekend,
including the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh E winds and moderate seas
are expected across the central Caribbean through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on an ashfall
advisory issued for ongoing volcanic eruptions on St. Vincent.

1019 mb high pressure centered NE of the Bahamas near 28N72W is
supporting mostly tranquil marine conditions across the western
Atlantic and Bahamas, with gentle winds and 3-6 ft seas. Gentle
to moderate trade winds prevail across the tropics in the central
Atlantic. A large occluded gale-force low pressure system north
of the area centered near 38N51W is producing a large area of
strong westerly winds north of 26N between 40W-60W. Seas are 11-16
ft in this area. Northerly swell from this system is affecting
most of the central Atlantic. Two weak surface troughs are
analyzed south of this low pressure system, from 28N43W to 22N58W,
and from 23N44W to 17N54W. Isolated showers embedded in multi-
layer broken to overcast clouds are noted from 21N to 31N between
28W and 42W.

Fresh southerly winds are expected this weekend in the Bahamas
and east of Florida this weekend as a cold front approaches the
western Atlantic. The front will move east of northern Florida on
Mon, extend from 30N65W to 23N78W on Tue, and move east of the
forecast area on Wed.

$$
Mundell
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