[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100403
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Apr 10 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0340 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SW Atlantic Ashfall Advisory: The Soufriere Volcano on St.
Vincent erupted explosively twice on Friday and remains in a
state of unrest. It could erupt again with little notice.
Volcanic ash may be reaching the surface from St. Vincent
extending eastward over the tropical Atlantic from 12N-15N
between 55W-61.5W. Mariners should exercise caution and report
volcanic ash or floating debris to the National Weather Service
by calling 305-229-4424.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends southward from the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from
05N19W to 02N30W to 02N46W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 01N-06N between 03W-19W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 03S-08N between 32W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh southerly winds cover the eastern Gulf, with
fresh S winds in the western Gulf. Seas are 3-6 ft. A cluster of
moderate thunderstorms is in the NE Gulf from 27.5N-29N between
84W-88W. This activity will weaken during the next couple hours.
A second cluster of stronger storms is expected to enter the
Gulf waters from southeast Louisiana to the western Florida
Panhandle after sunrise this morning in advance of a cold front.
These storms will push toward the SE through the morning. Expect
scattered wind gusts of 35-50 kt and frequent lightning with
these storms later this morning.

Fresh southerly winds will prevail across most of the basin
today. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf today, then stall
and weaken from the Florida panhandle to northern Mexico Sun
night. A few rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms
associated with the front are expected in the NE Gulf through
the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section above for details on ashfall
occurring as a result of volcanic eruptions on St Vincent.

A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh trades occurring across the
eastern basin, with gentle to moderate trade winds in the
western half of the Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated
tstorms are affecting the southwest Caribbean and portions of
Panama, Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua. Seas are 3-6 ft
across the basin.

For the forecast, fresh SE winds are expected across the NW
Caribbean this weekend, including the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh E
winds and seas to 9 ft are expected across the central Caribbean
through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on ashfall
occurring as a result of volcanic eruptions on St Vincent.

Tranquil conditions prevail across the western Atlantic and
Bahamas with gentle winds and 3-6 ft seas across the area west
of 67W and north of 24N. Farther east, a large gale force low
pressure system north of the area near 39N51W is causing strong
to near gale force westerly winds north of 28N between 47W-59W.
Seas are 11-15 ft in the area. Northerly swell from this system
is producing seas over 8 ft as far south as 22N between 40W-60W.
Two weak surface troughs are over the central Atlantic. One
extends from 28N45W to 23N61W and the other is from 23N43W to
17N57W. Isolated showers are near these troughs. Enhanced
upper-level divergence is leading to scattered tstorms north of
28N between 41W-52W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are
seen from 24N-30N between 32W-40W. A surface ridge axis extends
from a 1018 mb high near 30N20W to another 1018 mb high pressure
near 24N28W to 17N50W. Light to gentle winds are near the ridge
axis.

For the forecast west of 65W, fresh to strong S to SW winds and
seas to 9 ft are expected tonight into Sunday to the east of
Florida as a cold front approaches the western Atlantic. The
front will move east of northern Florida on Mon, and extend from
30N65W to 23N78W on Tue.

$$
Hagen
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